There will be a lot to play for this weekend in the Texas Derby as the Houston Dynamo host Dallas from BBVA Compass Stadium on Saturday.
Orange Crush are winless in their last 13 matches, while the Toros have dropped back-to-back games after going unbeaten in four straight.
Match preview
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It is no secret that things have not gone according to plan for Tab Ramos and his side over the past couple of months, as they have dropped to 12th place in the Western Conference table.
In the early portion of this campaign, Houston were right in the thick of the playoff race, but their position has changed dramatically since the end of May, with their last victory coming on May 22 versus the Vancouver Whitecaps.
Lately, the issue has been slow starts, conceding the opening goal in each of their last four matches, with all of those goals coming with less than 15 minutes on the clock.
This team does not fare well when fighting their way back into a match, having yet to win when conceding the opening goal this season.
However, they have also left plenty of points on the table, squandering 11 from winning positions in their 2021 campaign.
It may seem like they have a mountain to climb, but a couple of wins can change their fortunes as they are currently six points behind the Portland Timbers for that final playoff spot, though there are four teams above them in that chase at the moment.
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On Wednesday, Dallas wasted a strong performance against the Seattle Sounders, dropping their second successive fixture as they are currently sit three points back of a playoff berth.
The Toros had 65% of the possession versus the Western Conference leaders and were clicking at 87% in terms of pass accuracy but could only muster two shots on target.
Luchi Gonzalez has to be disappointed that his side have come away empty-handed over the past two weeks, despite having their share of opportunities versus Sporting Kansas City and the Rave Green.
They will feel a lot better about their play on the road, going unbeaten in their last two away games, handing KC their first home defeat of the season.
They have not won in Houston since the 2016 campaign, going scoreless in their two road fixtures against them in 2020.
Their next three games are away from home, where they have had their share of struggles this season, losing seven of their nine road matches.
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Team News
Marko Maric made his 43rd career start in goal for Houston on Wednesday, while Adam Lundqvist made his 15th appearance of the season in defence and his 80th all-time for the Dynamo and Teenage Hadebe earned his seventh start.
Houston continue to be without Nico Lemoine with a right groin injury, Ethan Bartlow is questionable with a right thigh strain, Tyler Pasher has a right lower-body injury and Corey Baird has a lower-body injury.
Darwin Ceren made his 70th regular-season appearance for Houston earlier this week, Zarek Valentin earned his 170th MLS cap and Fafa Picault made his 125th appearance in Major League Soccer and needs just four more starts to reach 100.
Dallas midfielder Kalil ElMedkhar made his third career MLS appearance on Wednesday, while Beni Redzic missed another match with an ankle sprain, John Nelson has a back injury and Paxton Pomykal is still nursing a knee problem.
Bressan returned from his yellow card suspension, starting in defence versus the Sounders in place of Matt Hedges, while Bryan Acosta was in the starting lineup on Wednesday for the first time since July 8 and Jader Obrian took the place of the injured Paxton Pomykal on the wing.
Their leading goalscorer Ricardo Pepi is without a goal in his last five matches, with his previous tallies coming in a 4-0 win over the Los Angeles Galaxy in late July when he notched a hat-trick.
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Maric; Lundqvist, Hadebe, Figueroa, Valentin; Ceren, Garcia; Picault, Corona, Rodriguez; Urruti
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Maurer; Twumasi, Hedges, Bressan, Hollingshead; Cerillo, Acosta; Vargas, Ferreira, Ricaurte; Pepi
We say: Houston Dynamo 1-2 Dallas
The Dynamo do not create enough scoring opportunities over 90 minutes to deserve three points, and they have been sloppy defensively lately, conceding 10 goals in their last three fixtures.
Dallas are goalless in their last two games, but they have at least shown more fight and desire to attack, and we should see a lot of desperation from them heading into this Texas Derby.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 49.45%. A win for Dallas had a probability of 25.65% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.77%). The likeliest Dallas win was 0-1 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
