Despite being two divisions apart last season, Hartlepool United and Northampton Town head into their League Two encounter on Saturday positioned just one point apart in the league table.
The hosts will be delighted with their return to the football league after the opening 10 fixtures, whilst the visitors will have mixed feelings of their start after suffering relegation from League One in 2020-21.
Match preview
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Not many at Hartlepool could have dreamt of a much better start on their return to League Two following promotion from the National League last season.
Despite a recent return to reality in terms of results, the Pool still find themselves in 13th place in the table, largely thanks to the three wins achieved from the opening four fixtures.
David Challinor's men defeated Crawley Town, Walsall and Carlisle United early on but have since struggled to replicate that early season momentum, with no wins and just the one goal scored in the last four league encounters.
In fact, scoring goals has not been an easy task for this weekend's hosts so far, with just the nine scored in total from the 10 matches played, although a strong defensive foundation has seen Hartlepool concede just as few.
Last weekend saw the Pool fall 2-0 at Stevenage, despite a largely positive performance in terms of possession domination and a number of created opportunities.
Meanwhile, visitors Northampton have found things far from plain sailing since returning to the fourth tier following their relegation from League One last campaign.
In fact, although results differ slightly, the Cobblers have an identical record in terms of goals scored and conceded to their hosts on Saturday.
After halting the doom and gloom of last season's disappointments with victory in each of the opening three matches in all competitions, Jon Brady's men have followed a similar path to Hartlepool since, with form taking a turn for the worse in recent weeks.
One win in their last six games in all competitions has seen Northampton fall to 10th in the league table, although they remain just one point off fourth place in a tight group of teams around the playoff places in League Two as it stands.
The last league fixture saw the Cobblers lose 2-0 at home to newly-promoted Sutton United on home soil last weekend, in a frustrating and disappointing performance that resulted in a failure to manage a single shot on target.
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Team News
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Hartlepool will be checking on the fitness of Gavan Holohan and Gary Liddle ahead of Saturday's match. The key players just missed out on the midweek cup tie, so manager Challinor will be hopeful they will be able to play a part in this one.
However, fellow midweek doubt David Ferguson was passed fit to play and managed the full 90 minutes so is likely to retain his place at the weekend.
Tyler Burey remains a long-term absentee and Joe Grey is expected to be unavailable again following his recent injury.
As for Northampton, they remain without a number of defenders as it stands, although long-term absentee Dominic Revan managed to return in central defence in midweek after injury had kept him out since April.
Michael Harriman also made his first start since August in another welcome return to the back line.
On-loan Tottenham Hotspur striker Kion Etete retains the manager's backing despite failing to find the net in the league so far this season, although he may drop to the bench whilst his confidence levels remain low.
Hartlepool United possible starting lineup:
Killip; Sterry, Byrne, Francis-Angol, Ferguson; Shelton, Featherstone, Daly; Cook; Molyneux, Fondop
Northampton Town possible starting lineup:
Roberts; McGowan, Harriman, Horsfall, Koiki; Connolly, Lewis, Sowerby, Pinnock; Rose, Hoskins
We say: Hartlepool United 1-1 Northampton Town
With the two sides arriving on Saturday in similar form and with an almost identical record so far, it is hard to separate them here. When you consider the tight defences and struggles to score goals from both as well, then a tight affair is to be expected so a draw appears to be a likely outcome.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 46.8%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Northampton Town had a probability of 25.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.3%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%), while for a Northampton Town win it was 0-1 (9.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hartlepool United would win this match.
