Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 77.24%. A draw had a probability of 14.4% and a win for Aris Thessaloniki had a probability of 8.35%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.33%) and 1-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.8%), while for an Aris Thessaloniki win it was 0-1 (2.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.