Exeter City will host Bradford City in the first round of the FA Cup on Tuesday night, with the two teams set to meet for the third time this month after an extraordinary turn of events.
The home side appeared to have booked their spot in the second round with a 3-0 victory in their first-round replay on November 16, but the result was ultimately declared null and void after it was found that Exeter had used a sixth substitute at the start of extra-time.
Match preview
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Exeter were excellent in the first-round replay on November 16, with a brace from Matt Jay and an effort from Nigel Atangana seeing the home side record a 3-0 victory, which looked to have secured their spot in the second round of the competition against Cambridge United.
Matt Taylor's side made the permitted five changes during the 90 minutes of the clash but then introduced Josh Key for Sam Nombe at the start of extra-time, with the sixth substitute breaking the rules.
As a result, the contest will be replayed on Tuesday night, and it would certainly be tough for Exeter to take if they were to lose this match, with Bradford being handed a huge lifeline in the FA Cup.
The home side will enter this game off the back of a 1-1 draw with Rochdale in League Two on Saturday, which has left them in third position in the table, seven points behind leaders Forest Green Rovers.
The Grecians famously reached the quarter-finals of the FA Cup in 1930-31 and 1980-81, while they have won two of their last four matches in the competition.
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Bradford, meanwhile, will enter the match off the back of a 1-1 draw with Scunthorpe United in League Two on Saturday, which has left them down in 12th position in the table.
Derek Adams's side are on a four-game winless run in all competitions, although they have only lost one of their last eight matches, with five of those fixtures finishing level.
Bradford found it difficult in the first-round replay earlier this month but will now be looking to take full advantage of the lifeline that has been provided in incredible circumstances.
The Bantams have previous when it comes to the FA Cup, meanwhile, winning the competition back in 1911, with the club beating Newcastle United 1-0 in a replay after a goalless draw.
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Team News
Exeter are again expected to be without the services of Cameron Dawson, which will open the door for Scott Brown to make his second appearance for the club between the sticks.
Head coach Taylor is unlikely to spring any surprises when it comes to his team selection, with a 3-4-3 formation expected to include Jay, Nombe and Jevani Brown in the final third.
Timothee Dieng should also retain his spot in the middle of the park, with the likes of Jack Sparkes and Padraig Amond set to be on the bench.
As for Bradford, Charles Vernam and Caolan Lavery both missed out against Scunthorpe on Saturday due to injury, and the pair remain a doubt for this contest.
Head coach Adams is expected to make changes from the team that started at the weekend, with Theo Robinson and Matty Foulds among those in line for starts.
The visitors could decide to match up to Exeter with a three-man defence, meaning that Yann Songo'o might drop back from midfield to feature at centre-back.
Exeter City possible starting lineup:
Brown; Hartridge, Ray, Sweeney; Caprice, Collins, Dieng, Key; Brown, Jay, Nombe
Bradford City possible starting lineup:
O'Donnell; O'Connor, Songo'o, Canavan; Threlkeld, Sutton, Watt, Foulds; Robinson, Gilliead, Angol
We say: Exeter City 2-1 Bradford City
It is difficult to know exactly what to expect here, with the match taking place in incredible circumstances. Exeter will be confident of beating Bradford once again, though, and we are expecting the home side to secure their spot in the second round of the FA Cup with a 2-1 success within 90 minutes.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 44.89%. A win for Bradford City had a probability of 29.16% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Bradford City win was 0-1 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Exeter City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Exeter City.
