MX23RW : Wednesday, July 24 11:41:56| >> :600:240137:240137:
Croatia national football team
European Championship | Group Stage
Jun 24, 2024 at 8pm UK
Red Bull Arena
Italy national football team

Croatia
1 - 1
Italy

Modric (55')
Sucic (24'), Modric (60'), Ivanusec (73'), Pongracic (78'), Stanisic (82'), Brozovic (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Zaccagni (90+8')
Calafiori (90+3'), Fagioli (90+6'), Spalletti (90+9')

The Match

Match Report

Italy strike in the last minute of added time to hold Croatia to a 1-1 draw and make the last 16 of Euro 2024, finishing second in Group B.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's European Championship clash between Croatia and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Croatia could line up for Monday's Euro 2024 clash with Italy.

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
European Championship
Last Game: Croatia 2-2 Albania
Wednesday, June 19 at 2pm in European Championship
Current Group B Standings P GD PTS
1Spain246
2Italy203
3Albania2-11
4Croatia2-31
All competitions
European Championship
Last Game: Spain 1-0 Italy
Thursday, June 20 at 8pm in European Championship
Current Group B Standings P GD PTS
1Spain246
2Italy203
3Albania2-11
4Croatia2-31

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 36.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Croatia win was 1-0 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
CroatiaDrawItaly
36.78% (0.146 0.15) 25.48% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02) 37.74% (-0.129 -0.13)
Both teams to score 56.05% (0.07 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.14% (0.090000000000003 0.09)47.85% (-0.094000000000001 -0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.96% (0.082999999999998 0.08)70.03% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
Croatia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.6% (0.123 0.12)25.4% (-0.125 -0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.79% (0.16999999999999 0.17)60.2% (-0.17299999999999 -0.17)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.13% (-0.030999999999992 -0.03)24.87% (0.027999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.52% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)59.47% (0.034999999999997 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Croatia 36.78%
    Italy 37.74%
    Draw 25.47%
CroatiaDrawItaly
1-0 @ 8.66% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
2-1 @ 8.26% (0.022 0.02)
2-0 @ 5.93% (0.02 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.77% (0.023 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.71% (0.019 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.62% (0.014 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.29% (0.012 0.01)
4-0 @ 0.93% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 36.78%
1-1 @ 12.04% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.32% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.74% (0.011 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.22% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 25.47%
0-1 @ 8.79% (-0.041 -0.04)
1-2 @ 8.38% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-2 @ 6.12% (-0.032999999999999 -0.03)
1-3 @ 3.89% (-0.01 -0.01)
0-3 @ 2.84% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.66% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-4 @ 1.35% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-4 @ 0.99% (-0.007 -0.01)
2-4 @ 0.93%
Other @ 1.8%
Total : 37.74%

How you voted: Croatia vs Italy

Croatia
21.6%
Draw
35.6%
Italy
42.8%
908
Head to Head
Jun 12, 2015 7.45pm
Nov 16, 2014 7.45pm
Qualifiers
Italy
1-1
Croatia
Candreva (11')
Immobile (46')
Perisic (15')
Kovacic (37'), Perisic (65')
Jun 14, 2012 5pm
rhs 2.0
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