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Europa League
Marseille
Europa League | Group Stage
Nov 30, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Ajax

Marseille
4 - 3
Ajax

Aubameyang (9' pen., 47', 90+3' pen.), Mbemba (26')
Lodi (69'), Sarr (90')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Brobbey (10', 30'), Akpom (79')
Taylor (71'), Hlynsson (76'), Rensch (90+3'), Hato (90+8')
Berghuis (63')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Marseille and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Strasbourg 1-1 Marseille
Saturday, November 25 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Ajax

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Ajax 5-0 Vitesse
Saturday, November 25 at 8pm in Eredivisie

We said: Marseille 2-1 Ajax

 Considering a total of 21 goals have been scored in the last six meetings between these two teams, including three apiece in their most recent clash two months ago, another enthralling encounter with plenty of goalmouth action could on the cards on Thursday. Both sides have experienced inconsistent spells of form in recent weeks, but when taking into account Marseille's solid home form and Ajax's poor away record, we believe that the hosts will come out on top to secure their place in the Europa League knockout rounds, eliminating their Dutch counterparts in the process. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 36.57% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.92%) and 2-0 (5.15%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawAjax
40.74%22.69%36.57% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Both teams to score 66.47% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.66% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)34.34% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.76% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)56.24%
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.46% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)17.54% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.93% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)48.07% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.61% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)19.39% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.81% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)51.19% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 40.74%
    Ajax 36.57%
    Draw 22.69%
MarseilleDrawAjax
2-1 @ 8.45% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-0 @ 5.92% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 5.15% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 4.9%
3-2 @ 4.02%
3-0 @ 2.99%
4-1 @ 2.13%
4-2 @ 1.75%
4-0 @ 1.3%
4-3 @ 0.96% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 40.74%
1-1 @ 9.71%
2-2 @ 6.93%
0-0 @ 3.4%
3-3 @ 2.2%
Other @ 0.44%
Total : 22.69%
1-2 @ 7.97% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-1 @ 5.58%
0-2 @ 4.58%
1-3 @ 4.36% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-3 @ 3.79% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 2.5% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-4 @ 1.79%
2-4 @ 1.56%
0-4 @ 1.03% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-4 @ 0.9% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 2.53%
Total : 36.57%

How you voted: Marseille vs Ajax

Marseille
60.7%
Draw
21.3%
Ajax
18.0%
89
Head to Head
Sep 21, 2023 8pm
Group Stage
Ajax
3-3
Marseille
Borges (9'), Berghuis (20'), Taylor (52')
Berghuis (22'), Vos (55')
Vos (90+1')
Clauss (23'), Aubameyang (38', 78')
Gigot (90+7')
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