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Europa League
Ajax
Europa League | Group Stage
Sep 21, 2023 at 8pm UK
Johan Cruijff Arena
Marseille

Ajax
3 - 3
Marseille

Borges (9'), Berghuis (20'), Taylor (52')
Berghuis (22'), Vos (55')
Vos (90+1')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Clauss (23'), Aubameyang (38', 78')
Gigot (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Ajax and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: FC Twente 3-1 Ajax
Sunday, September 17 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Marseille

All competitions
Last Game: Marseille 0-0 Toulouse
Sunday, September 17 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1

We said: Ajax 1-1 Marseille

 Given both sides have experienced starts to the season which may not be characteristic of their quality, it is tough to call Thursday's contest as both seek to find their best form. The hosts are certainly not brimming with confidence or momentum, while their visitors deal with instability likely under temporary management, and as such we cannot predict a winner and instead opt for a share of the spoils in the Dutch capital. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 42.17%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 33.77% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.8%) and 2-0 (6.28%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-2 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
AjaxDrawMarseille
42.17% (0.045000000000002 0.05) 24.06% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02) 33.77% (-0.029999999999994 -0.03)
Both teams to score 60.61% (0.036000000000001 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.28% (0.052000000000007 0.05)41.72% (-0.052 -0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.87% (0.052 0.05)64.12% (-0.053000000000011 -0.05)
Ajax Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80% (0.040000000000006 0.04)20% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.81% (0.067 0.07)52.19% (-0.067 -0.07)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.76% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)24.23% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.41% (0.011000000000003 0.01)58.58% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Ajax 42.17%
    Marseille 33.77%
    Draw 24.05%
AjaxDrawMarseille
2-1 @ 8.9% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 7.8% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6.28% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-1 @ 4.77% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.38% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.37% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-1 @ 1.92% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 1.36% (0.004 0)
4-0 @ 1.36% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 42.17%
1-1 @ 11.05% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.31% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-0 @ 4.85% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.6% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 24.05%
1-2 @ 7.84% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-1 @ 6.87% (-0.015 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.87% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.7% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-3 @ 2.98% (0.0020000000000002 0)
0-3 @ 2.3% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 1.31%
2-4 @ 1.06% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 33.77%

How you voted: Ajax vs Marseille

Ajax
45.8%
Draw
28.3%
Marseille
25.8%
120
rhs 2.0
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