Eredivisie | Gameweek 12
Nov 20, 2021 at 8pm UK
Polman Stadion
Heracles3 - 1Sittard
Aiming to secure a fourth home win in five games, Heracles welcome Fortuna Sittard to the Erve Asito on Saturday.
Meanwhile, the visitors are still yet to record an away victory this term and will be looking to end this barren run on the road.
Read more.
Match preview
Heracles fell to a narrow 1-0 defeat against FC Twente when the two sides faced off at the Grolsch Veste Stadium on November 5. Mees Hilgers broke the deadlock in the early stages of the contest, and that was enough to put Frank Wormuth's men to the sword. Having amassed just one of the last 12 points available, the Heraclieden are 14th on the log and in need of a change in fortune. Their next assignment comes against an opposing side who have won just two of the previous eight meetings between the teams since 2004. Saturday's hosts head into this weekend's contest off the back of a friendly 2-1 loss versus Fortuna Dusseldorf during the international break. Fortuna Sittard shipped four goals for the second straight game as they were thrashed 4-1 by PSV Eindhoven a fortnight ago. Sjors Ultee's men trailed at half time thanks to Ritsu Doan's opener, before Bruma came off the bench in the second half to score twice either side of an Ibrahim Sangare strike to put the result beyond doubt. Consequently, the Fortunezen have dropped to bottom but one on the standings, two points adrift of safety albeit with a game in hand. Saturday's visitors, who take on fellow strugglers Groningen in their next outing, will need to stay within touching distance ahead of a crucial relegation six-pointer.Heracles Eredivisie form:
- W
- W
- L
- L
- D
- L
Heracles form (all competitions):
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
Fortuna Sittard Eredivisie form:
- D
- L
- W
- D
- L
- L
Fortuna Sittard form (all competitions):
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
- L
Team News
Italian defender Giacomo Quagliata is suspended for the home side as a result of accumulation of yellow cards. Heracles will also have to make do with the absence of Bilal Basacikoglu and Kasper Jakobsen who are out with muscle and knee injuries respectively. Twenty-five-year-old Lisandro Semedo has not featured since June due to an ankle injury and is not expected to be back in time for Sittard. Roel Janssen is a doubt for this weekend's clash after he sat out the defeat to PSV with a slight injury. Heracles possible starting lineup: Blaswich; Sierra, Knoester, Rente, Bakboord; De La Torre, Schoofs, Vloet; Fadiga, Burgzorg, Sierhuis Fortuna Sittard possible starting lineup: Van Osch; Ferati, Pito, Angha, Johansson; Rienstra, Tekie, Duarte; Seuntjens, Flemming, HanssonWe said: Heracles 2-1 Fortuna Sittard
Heracles have been imperious on home ground of late while Fortuna cannot seem to get going on their travels. We expect the home side to claim all three points in this one, albeit by only a narrow margin.Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 53.46%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 23.28% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 0-1 (6.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 53.46% | 23.27% | 23.28% |
| Both teams to score 55.46% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
