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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 36.21% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.26%) and 2-3 (4.74%). The likeliest Ajax win was 2-1 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Feyenoord |
36.21% ( -1.91) | 21.33% ( -0.15) | 42.46% ( 2.05) |
Both teams to score 71.82% ( 0.3) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
72.59% ( 0.48) | 27.4% ( -0.49) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
52% ( 0.61) | 47.99% ( -0.61) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.55% ( -0.58) | 16.44% ( 0.57) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.87% ( -1.05) | 46.12% ( 1.04) |
Feyenoord Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.95% ( 0.94) | 14.04% ( -0.94) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.39% ( 1.82) | 41.61% ( -1.82) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Feyenoord |
2-1 @ 7.39% ( -0.26) 3-1 @ 4.45% ( -0.25) 3-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 4.17% ( -0.21) 2-0 @ 3.76% ( -0.27) 3-0 @ 2.26% ( -0.21) 4-1 @ 2.01% ( -0.15) 4-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.08) 4-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.12) Other @ 3.53% Total : 36.21% | 1-1 @ 8.18% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 7.25% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 2.86% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 2.31% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.73% Total : 21.33% | 1-2 @ 8.03% ( 0.15) 1-3 @ 5.26% ( 0.27) 2-3 @ 4.74% ( 0.15) 0-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.45% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.2) 1-4 @ 2.58% ( 0.21) 2-4 @ 2.33% ( 0.15) 0-4 @ 1.43% ( 0.14) 3-4 @ 1.4% ( 0.06) 1-5 @ 1.01% ( 0.11) 2-5 @ 0.91% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.87% Total : 42.46% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 20 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 65 | 20 | 45 | 49 |
2 | Ajax | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 17 | 24 | 45 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 41 |
4 | Feyenoord | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 36 |
5 | FC Twente | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 25 | 14 | 34 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 21 | 13 | 34 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 25 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 25 |
10 | Heerenveen | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 24 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 23 |
12 | Willem II | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 23 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 23 |
14 | Groningen | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 21 |
15 | Heracles | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 23 | 36 | -13 | 20 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 17 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 11 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 39 | -29 | 10 |
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