Lesotho

2 - 1

Malawi

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lesotho win with a probability of 51.31%. A win for Malawi had a probability of 24.89% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lesotho win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Malawi win was 0-1 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lesotho would win this match.