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Copa Libertadores WWW header

Copa Libertadores
Athletico Paranaense
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 26, 2022 at 11pm UK
Arena da Baixada

Athletico PR
5 - 1
Caracas

Pablo (19', 22'), Christian (45+1', 71'), Rocha (75')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Rivero (58')
Suarez (55'), Notaroberto (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Athletico Paranaense and Caracas, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletico Paranaense

Last Six:
Last Game: Juventude 1-3 Athletico PR
Wednesday, June 8 at 11pm in Brasileiro
Next Game: Fortaleza vs. Athletico PR
Sunday, June 12 at 11pm in Brasileiro

Caracas

Last Six:
    Last Game: Athletico PR 5-1 Caracas
    Thursday, May 26 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

    We said: Athletico Paranaense 2-1 Caracas

     With a place in the final 16 on the line, we predict a tight and cagey affair in Brazil that could go either way. However, Athletico Paranaense have the stronger squad on paper, and with home advantage, they should have enough to just get over the line. Read more.

    Data Analysis

    Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 58.46%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Caracas had a probability of 17.78%.

    The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.64%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Caracas win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.

    Result
    Athletico ParanaenseDrawCaracas
    58.46% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03) 23.76% (-0.181 -0.18) 17.78% (0.215 0.22)
    Both teams to score 45.76% (0.873 0.87)
    Goals
    Over 2.5Under 2.5
    46.26% (0.964 0.96)53.74% (-0.964 -0.96)
    Over 3.5Under 3.5
    24.78% (0.806 0.81)75.22% (-0.80800000000001 -0.81)
    Athletico Paranaense Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    81.84% (0.346 0.35)18.16% (-0.347 -0.35)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    50.86% (0.588 0.59)49.14% (-0.589 -0.59)
    Caracas Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    55.91% (0.834 0.83)44.08% (-0.834 -0.83)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    19.81% (0.674 0.67)80.19% (-0.675 -0.67)
    Score Analysis
        Athletico Paranaense 58.44%
        Caracas 17.78%
        Draw 23.76%
    Athletico ParanaenseDrawCaracas
    1-0 @ 13.65% (-0.37 -0.37)
    2-0 @ 11.64% (-0.18 -0.18)
    2-1 @ 9.54% (0.074 0.07)
    3-0 @ 6.62% (-0.028 -0.03)
    3-1 @ 5.43% (0.102 0.1)
    4-0 @ 2.83% (0.02 0.02)
    4-1 @ 2.31% (0.069 0.07)
    3-2 @ 2.22% (0.091 0.09)
    5-0 @ 0.96% (0.017 0.02)
    4-2 @ 0.95% (0.049 0.05)
    Other @ 2.29%
    Total : 58.44%
    		1-1 @ 11.18% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
    0-0 @ 8.01% (-0.307 -0.31)
    2-2 @ 3.91% (0.119 0.12)
    Other @ 0.66%
    Total : 23.76%
    		0-1 @ 6.56% (-0.095999999999999 -0.1)
    1-2 @ 4.58% (0.089 0.09)
    0-2 @ 2.69% (0.023 0.02)
    1-3 @ 1.25% (0.053 0.05)
    2-3 @ 1.07% (0.056 0.06)
    Other @ 1.63%
    Total : 17.78%

    How you voted: Athletico PR vs Caracas

    Athletico Paranaense
    86.7%
    Draw
    13.3%
    Caracas
    0.0%
    15
    Head to Head
    Apr 5, 2022 11.15pm
    Caracas
    0-0
    Athletico PR

    Notaroberto (66')

    Moura (66')
    Oct 3, 2018 11.30pm
    Athletico PR
    2-1
    Caracas
    Cirino (31'), Lodi (58')
    Martins (63'), Andre (76')
    Garces (49')
    Hernandez (28'), Martins (63'), Arrieta (78'), Garces (80'), Quijada (86'), Guerra (92')
    Sep 19, 2018 11.30pm
    Caracas
    0-2
    Athletico PR

    Canelon (44'), Garces (63')
    Veiga (42', 73')
    Gonzalez (51')
    rhs 2.0
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