Copa del Rey | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Mar 1, 2023 at 8pm UK
Estadio El Sadar
Osasuna1 - 0Athletic Bilbao
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Sevilla 2-3 Osasuna
Sunday, February 26 at 8pm in La Liga
Sunday, February 26 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Athletic Bilbao 2-3 Girona
Sunday, February 26 at 1pm in La Liga
Sunday, February 26 at 1pm in La Liga
We said: Osasuna 2-1 Athletic Bilbao
Osasuna clung to a goalless draw when these sides met in Bilbao six weeks ago - registering just three shots all match - but go into the semi-final in better form on the pitch and a far emptier treatment room off it. Athletic are one of the most aggressive teams off the ball in La Liga but may struggle to reproduce their trademark intensity with so many absences, giving Osasuna the edge in the first leg of what promises to be an enthralling tie. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for Osasuna had a probability of 35.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Osasuna win was 1-0 (9.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Osasuna would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Osasuna | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
35.04% ( -0) | 26.4% ( -0.01) | 38.56% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 52.77% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
