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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 41.53%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 33.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.61%) and 2-0 (6.56%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-2 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
Result | ||
Stoke City | Draw | Southampton |
41.53% ( -1.67) | 24.79% ( 0.09) | 33.67% ( 1.59) |
Both teams to score 57.94% ( 0.26) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.81% ( 0.09) | 45.19% ( -0.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.47% ( 0.09) | 67.53% ( -0.09) |
Stoke City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.24% ( -0.74) | 21.76% ( 0.74) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.05% ( -1.14) | 54.95% ( 1.14) |
Southampton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.06% ( 1.02) | 25.94% ( -1.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.06% ( 1.35) | 60.94% ( -1.35) |
Score Analysis |
Stoke City | Draw | Southampton |
2-1 @ 8.86% ( -0.18) 1-0 @ 8.61% ( -0.23) 2-0 @ 6.56% ( -0.33) 3-1 @ 4.5% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 3.34% ( -0.25) 3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.72% ( -0.12) 4-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.48% Total : 41.53% | 1-1 @ 11.61% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.65% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.79% | 1-2 @ 7.84% ( 0.24) 0-1 @ 7.62% ( 0.19) 0-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.27) 1-3 @ 3.53% ( 0.21) 2-3 @ 2.69% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.18) 1-4 @ 1.19% ( 0.1) 2-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.45% Total : 33.67% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 60 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 58 |
3 | Burnley | 29 | 15 | 12 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 57 |
4 | Sunderland | 29 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 55 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 29 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 38 | 25 | 13 | 44 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 44 |
7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 42 |
8 | Bristol City | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 41 |
9 | Watford | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 41 | -1 | 41 |
10 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 41 |
11 | Norwich CityNorwich | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 48 | 42 | 6 | 39 |
12 | Coventry CityCoventry | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 38 |
13 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 38 |
14 | Millwall | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 37 |
15 | Preston North EndPreston | 29 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 37 |
16 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 36 |
17 | Swansea CitySwansea | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 34 |
18 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 31 |
19 | Hull City | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
20 | Stoke CityStoke | 29 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 29 |
21 | Portsmouth | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 29 |
22 | Derby CountyDerby | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 27 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 26 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 29 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 27 | 62 | -35 | 22 |
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