EFL Cup | Third Round
Sep 27, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth2 - 0Stoke
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Brighton 3-1 Bournemouth
Sunday, September 24 at 2pm in Premier League
Sunday, September 24 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Stoke 1-3 Hull City
Sunday, September 24 at 12pm in Championship
Sunday, September 24 at 12pm in Championship
We said: Bournemouth 3-0 Stoke City
With injuries piling up and other players unable to take the field on Wednesday for administrative reasons, this third-round tie has all the makings of a miserable evening for the Potters. An injection of confidence would do Bournemouth the world of good right now, and we expect the Cherries to get it during a resounding success on home soil. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 53.36%. A win for Bournemouth had a probability of 23.77% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.29%) and 0-2 (8.51%). The likeliest Bournemouth win was 2-1 (6.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Bournemouth would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bournemouth | Draw | Stoke City |
23.77% ( -0.93) | 22.87% ( -0.15) | 53.36% ( 1.07) |
| Both teams to score 57.39% ( -0.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.28% ( -0.25) | 42.72% ( 0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.88% ( -0.25) | 65.12% ( 0.24) |
| Bournemouth Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.32% ( -0.9) | 31.68% ( 0.9) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 31.9% ( -1.05) | 68.1% ( 1.05) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84% ( 0.28) | 16% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 54.68% ( 0.52) | 45.32% ( -0.53) |
| Score Analysis |
Bournemouth 23.77%
Stoke City 53.36%
Draw 22.87%
| Bournemouth | Draw | Stoke City |
| 2-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.18) 1-0 @ 5.83% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 3.35% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 2.35% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.67% Total : 23.77% | 1-1 @ 10.67% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.62% ( -0.11)0-0 @ 5.07% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.19% Total : 22.87% | 1-2 @ 9.78% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 9.29% ( 0.19)0-2 @ 8.51% ( 0.26)1-3 @ 5.98% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 5.2% ( 0.21)2-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 2.74% ( 0.07)0-4 @ 2.38% ( 0.12)2-4 @ 1.57% ( 0)1-5 @ 1% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.46% Total : 53.36% |
How you voted: Bournemouth vs Stoke
Bournemouth
77.6%Draw
16.3%Stoke City
6.1%49
