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Bundesliga | Gameweek 14
Dec 14, 2024 at 2.30pm UK
Mewa Arena
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Mainz
2 - 1
Bayern

Jae-sung (41', 60')
Kohr (49'), Mwene (90'), Amiri (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Sane (87')
Kimmich (78'), Laimer (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Wolfsburg 4-3 Mainz
Sunday, December 8 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Bayern Munich

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Shakhtar 1-5 Bayern
Tuesday, December 10 at 8pm in Champions League

We said: Mainz 05 1-3 Bayern Munich

 Bayern have been rampant in front of goal all season, and it is plausible that they could score multiple times on Saturday. However, given the injuries in defence and to Neuer, Mainz will likely have opportunities of their own, and they may at least prevent the visitors from keeping a clean sheet. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 69.53%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 13.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.47%) and 1-3 (7.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.14%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 2-1 (3.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
13.87% (0.632 0.63) 16.59% (0.238 0.24) 69.53% (-0.871 -0.87)
Both teams to score 61.38% (0.986 0.99)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
71.04% (0.383 0.38)28.95% (-0.386 -0.39)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
50.08% (0.468 0.47)49.92% (-0.471 -0.47)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.38% (1.122 1.12)33.62% (-1.123 -1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.73% (1.204 1.2)70.26% (-1.206 -1.21)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.46% (-0.079000000000008 -0.08)7.53% (0.077100000000001 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
72.99% (-0.202 -0.2)27.01% (0.2 0.2)
Score Analysis
    Mainz 05 13.87%
    Bayern Munich 69.53%
    Draw 16.59%
Mainz 05DrawBayern Munich
2-1 @ 3.89% (0.133 0.13)
1-0 @ 2.76% (0.023 0.02)
3-2 @ 1.83% (0.108 0.11)
2-0 @ 1.51% (0.057 0.06)
3-1 @ 1.41% (0.089 0.09)
Other @ 2.48%
Total : 13.87%
1-1 @ 7.14% (0.03 0.03)
2-2 @ 5.03% (0.152 0.15)
0-0 @ 2.53% (-0.058 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.58% (0.088 0.09)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 16.59%
1-2 @ 9.23% (0.0010000000000012 0)
0-2 @ 8.47% (-0.261 -0.26)
1-3 @ 7.96% (-0.031 -0.03)
0-3 @ 7.3% (-0.256 -0.26)
0-1 @ 6.55% (-0.176 -0.18)
1-4 @ 5.14% (-0.041 -0.04)
0-4 @ 4.72% (-0.185 -0.19)
2-3 @ 4.34% (0.114 0.11)
2-4 @ 2.8% (0.062 0.06)
1-5 @ 2.66% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-5 @ 2.44% (-0.106 -0.11)
2-5 @ 1.45% (0.027 0.03)
1-6 @ 1.15% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-6 @ 1.05% (-0.05 -0.05)
3-4 @ 1.02% (0.053 0.05)
Other @ 3.27%
Total : 69.53%

How you voted: Mainz vs Bayern

Mainz 05
17.5%
Draw
6.8%
Bayern Munich
75.7%
103
Head to Head
Oct 30, 2024 7.45pm
Second Round
Mainz
0-4
Bayern

Kohr (20'), Nebel (45+3'), Jenz (45+3'), Nebel (64')
Musiala (2', 37', 45+4'), Sane (45+1')
Laimer (43')
> Preview
Mar 9, 2024 2.30pm
Gameweek 25
Bayern
8-1
Mainz
Kane (13', 45+7', 70'), Goretzka (19', 90+2'), Muller (47'), Musiala (61'), Gnabry (66')
Laimer (5')
Amiri (31')
Widmer (84')
> Preview
Oct 21, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 8
Mainz
1-3
Bayern
Caci (43')
Ajorque (45+2'), Kohr (49'), Bell (65')
Coman (11'), Kane (16'), Goretzka (59')
de Ligt (27'), Laimer (90+1')
> Preview
Apr 22, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 29
Mainz
3-1
Bayern
Ajorque (65'), Barreiro (73'), Caricol (79')
Mane (29')
> Preview
Feb 1, 2023 7.45pm
Round of 16
Mainz
0-4
Bayern
Maxim Choupo-Moting (17'), Musiala (30'), Sane (44'), Davies (83')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern18143156154145
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen18125144242041
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt18113442241836
4Stuttgart1895436261032
5RB Leipzig189453227531
6Mainz 05Mainz188463123828
7Wolfsburg188374032827
8Freiburg188372534-927
9Werder Bremen187563134-326
10Borussia DortmundDortmund187473231125
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach187382729-224
12Augsburg186482133-1222
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin185581624-820
14St Pauli1852111421-717
15Hoffenheim184592335-1217
16Heidenheim1842122338-1514
17Holstein Kiel1832132646-2011
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1824121740-2310
> Bundesliga Full Table


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