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Bundesliga | Gameweek 17
Jan 14, 2025 at 7.30pm UK
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B. Leverkusen
1 - 0
Mainz

Grimaldo (48')
Mukiele (69'), Xhaka (87')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Sieb (17'), Bell (51'), Caci (68'), Sieb (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 2-3 B. Leverkusen
Friday, January 10 at 7.45pm in Bundesliga

Mainz 05

All competitions
Last Game: Mainz 2-0 VfL Bochum
Saturday, January 11 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Mainz 05

 Mainz are unlikely to be beaten easily on Tuesday, and it would not be surprising if the game was a closely fought contest. Leverkusen should be considered slight favourites given their excellent home record, and they could find joy during counter-attacks if Mainz are forced to push further forward in the event that the hosts take the lead. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 76.08%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 9.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.51%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.74%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (2.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMainz 05
76.08% (0.235 0.23) 14.59% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01) 9.33% (-0.2289 -0.23)
Both teams to score 52.72% (-1.031 -1.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
67.86% (-0.77799999999999 -0.78)32.13% (0.777 0.78)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
46.28% (-0.914 -0.91)53.72% (0.912 0.91)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
93.01% (-0.129 -0.13)6.99% (0.128 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
74.41% (-0.34 -0.34)25.59% (0.338 0.34)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.68% (-1.029 -1.03)43.32% (1.027 1.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.44% (-0.871 -0.87)79.56% (0.871 0.87)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 76.07%
    Mainz 05 9.33%
    Draw 14.59%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMainz 05
2-0 @ 10.71% (0.3 0.3)
3-0 @ 9.51% (0.204 0.2)
2-1 @ 8.97% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-0 @ 8.06% (0.281 0.28)
3-1 @ 7.95% (-0.053000000000001 -0.05)
4-0 @ 6.32% (0.093 0.09)
4-1 @ 5.29% (-0.071 -0.07)
5-0 @ 3.36% (0.026 0.03)
3-2 @ 3.33% (-0.118 -0.12)
5-1 @ 2.82% (-0.058 -0.06)
4-2 @ 2.21% (-0.094 -0.09)
6-0 @ 1.49% (0.002 0)
6-1 @ 1.25% (-0.035 -0.03)
5-2 @ 1.18% (-0.058 -0.06)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 76.07%
1-1 @ 6.74% (0.048 0.05)
2-2 @ 3.75% (-0.106 -0.11)
0-0 @ 3.03% (0.126 0.13)
3-3 @ 0.93% (-0.06 -0.06)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 14.59%
1-2 @ 2.82% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-1 @ 2.53% (0.035 0.03)
0-2 @ 1.06% (-0.015 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.05% (-0.061 -0.06)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 9.33%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Mainz

Bayer Leverkusen
84.1%
Draw
10.3%
Mainz 05
5.6%
126
Head to Head
Feb 23, 2024 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
B. Leverkusen
2-1
Mainz
Xhaka (3'), Andrich (68')
Frimpong (45+1'), Alonso (45+1'), Tah (49'), Wirtz (74')
Kohr (7')
Onisiwo (42'), Kohr (52'), Zentner (54'), Caci (66'), Mwene (85')
Ngankam (80')
> Preview
Sep 30, 2023 2.30pm
Gameweek 6
Mainz
0-3
B. Leverkusen

Fernandes (58'), Gruda (75'), Richter (90+2'), Barreiro (90+4')
Van den Berg (18' og.), Grimaldo (59'), Hofmann (65')
Xhaka (4')
> Preview
Feb 19, 2023 6.30pm
Gameweek 21
B. Leverkusen
2-3
Mainz
Amiri (32'), Schick (58')
Caci (26'), Barreiro (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82' pen.)
> Preview
Aug 27, 2022 2.30pm
Gameweek 4
Mainz
0-3
B. Leverkusen

Burgzorg (70')
Palacios (29'), Frimpong (39', 41')
Hincapie (3'), Andrich (45'), Frimpong (60'), Bakker (76')
Hincapie (77'), Bakker (90+4')
> Preview
Feb 18, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 23
Mainz
3-2
B. Leverkusen
Caricol (57'), Boetius (84'), Ingvartsen (88')
Caricol (66'), Ingvartsen (90+5')
Schick (35'), Alario (74')
Adli (31'), Demirbay (56')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern18143156154145
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen18125144242041
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt18113442241836
4Stuttgart1895436261032
5RB Leipzig189453227531
6Mainz 05Mainz188463123828
7Wolfsburg188374032827
8Freiburg188372534-927
9Werder Bremen187563134-326
10Borussia DortmundDortmund187473231125
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach187382729-224
12Augsburg186482133-1222
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin185581624-820
14St Pauli1852111421-717
15Hoffenheim184592335-1217
16Heidenheim1842122338-1514
17Holstein Kiel1832132646-2011
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1824121740-2310
> Bundesliga Full Table


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