Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 48.06%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 26.3% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.29%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Atletico Mineiro in this match.