A Bordeaux team who were previously expected to challenge for a European place prepare to take on a Metz team who are now realistic contenders for a top-five finish in Ligue 1 on Saturday lunchtime.
Jean-Louis Gasset's side succumbed to a 2-0 defeat to Nimes last time out, while Metz continued their European charge with a 2-1 win at Nice.
Match preview
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Bordeaux have hit a new low. If defeats to Lyon, Lille and Brest were not bad enough for Les Girondins, their fanbase were forced to endure a torrid 90 minutes against relegation candidates Nimes, who eased to a 2-0 win on Sunday thanks to goals from Birger Meling and Renaud Ripart.
Gasset's men have now lost five of their last six in all competitions and have failed to score in their last three, as their form has dropped off at the same time as Hwang Ui-jo's, with the Korean forward now boasting just one goal in five after a spate of previously promising performances.
Bordeaux have only managed to make the net ripple twice in their six-game winless run and they have now slumped into the bottom half of the standings, so the Girondins fanbase will likely consider their top-five chances all but over if they fail to return to winning ways this weekend.
At the Matmut Atlantique, Bordeaux are still winless and goalless in February, although they did hold Marseille to a 0-0 draw in their last outing on familiar territory - a result which represented Les Girondins' seventh home clean sheet of the campaign.
Gasset's men do boast the best defensive record in the bottom half with 31 goals conceded in 26 matches, but Dijon and Rennes are the only other two sides without a win in any of their last five, and Metz will make the journey to Bordeaux feeling capable of prolonging the hosts' misery.
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With Marseille, Rennes and Montpellier HSC all faltering in their bids for a European spot, dark horses Metz have taken advantage with a magnificent run of form since the turn of the year.
Frederic Antonetti had witnessed his side go three games without a win before their trip to Nice, but Les Grenats got their top-five charge back on track with a 2-1 triumph at the Allianz Riviera, with Kiki Kouyate and Lamine Gueye netting before Amine Gouiri added a consolation for Nice.
Many expected Metz to struggle in the 2020-21 campaign after an early ACL injury to Ibrahima Niane, but Antonetti's men have defied expectation to sit just two points outside the top five, although a poor start to February - with defeats to Saint-Etienne and Strasbourg - did their continental aspirations no favours.
Depending on what happens in Rennes' clash with Nice on Friday evening, Metz could break into the European places with a win at Bordeaux, and Les Grenats travel to the Matmut Atlantique having lost just two of their last 11 on the road in Ligue 1 - prevailing in four of their last six.
The first meeting between Bordeaux and Metz this season ended goalless, but Les Girondins had won the previous six meetings by an aggregate scoreline of 16-1 before January's drab stalemate.
Bordeaux Ligue 1 form: WLLLDL
Bordeaux form (all competitions): LLLLDL
Metz Ligue 1 form: WWDLLW
Metz form (all competitions): WDLWLW
Team News
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Bordeaux left-back Loris Benito received a straight red in the defeat to Nimes and is not available here, while Yacine Adli is also banned for an accumulation of bookings.
Maxime Poundje should come in for the suspended Benito, but Gasset is in a predicament regarding his midfield options, as Otavio and Toma Basic are unavailable through injury while Adli is suspended.
Hatem Ben Arfa may be forced to drop deeper alongside Jean Michael Seri, while Paul Baysse has not yet returned to team training after missing out against Nimes.
Metz are in rather good shape at the moment but are still waiting for Opa Nguette and Vincent Pajot to return from injuries, although the duo are not thought to be too far away from comebacks.
Mamadou Fofana and Victorien Angban will both hope to earn recalls in midfield, but Antonetti is expected to keep faith with the same XI that got the job done at Nice.
Bordeaux possible starting lineup:
Costil; Kwateng, Mexer, Koscielny, Poundje; Ben Arfa, Seri; Oudin, De Preville, Kalu; Hwang
Metz possible starting lineup:
Oukidja; Bronn, Boye, Kouyate; Centonze, Maiga, Sarr, Udol; Gueye, Boulaya, Vagner
We say: Bordeaux 0-1 Metz
Only the top three sides have shipped fewer goals than Metz this term, while Bordeaux are not exactly renowned for a leaky defence despite their truly shocking form. The hosts' already-depleted ranks have been decimated further by recent suspensions and injuries, and the confidence in the Bordeaux camp cannot be high right now, so we expect Metz to record back-to-back wins and finally end their barren run against Les Girondins.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bordeaux win with a probability of 43.29%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Metz had a probability of 28.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bordeaux win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.65%) and 2-1 (8.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.13%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (10.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
