Azerbaijan welcome fellow Group F minnows Estonia to Dalga Arena on Saturday as both sides look to enhance their chances of qualifying for Euro 2024.

With Belgium, Sweden and Austria leading the way in Group F, Azerbaijan and Estonia will view their clashes against each other as must-win games.

Match preview

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It would not be unfair to say that Azerbaijan made a woeful start to their Euro 2024 qualifying campaign back in March, suffering heavy defeats to both Austria and Sweden while conceding nine goals.

After enduring a 4-1 defeat to Austria, Milli Komanda suffered a 5-0 thrashing at the hands of Sweden, meaning that only Liechtenstein head into the third round of qualifiers with a poorer defensive record than Azerbaijan.

Gianni De Biasi's side experienced a 13-game winless run between June 2021 and June 2022 before ending the previous year with five successive victories, claiming UEFA Nations League wins over Belarus, Slovakia and Kazakhstan before notching friendly victories against Moldova and North Macedonia.

However, Azerbaijan were brought back down to earth by Austria and Sweden, with March's thrashing highlighting the gulf in quality between Milli Komanda and the top teams in the group.

It is worth remembering that Azerbaijan drew one and lost seven of their eight Euro 2020 qualifiers before posting the same record during qualification for the 2022 World Cup, so De Biasi's men will be desperate to improve this time around.

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Estonia, on the other hand, have played just the one Euro 2024 qualifier so far, but the Sinisargid find themselves above Azerbaijan thanks to their superior goal difference, with Belgium and Sweden only three points ahead.

Despite seeing just 34% of the ball against Austria back in March, a first-half goal from Rauno Sappinen looked set to hand Estonia a famous victory in Linz, only for the hosts to score two late goals and snatch the points.

In January, Thomas Haberli's side picked up a couple of positive friendly results, holding Iceland to a 1-1 draw before defeating Finland 1-0, and they also suffered a narrow 1-0 friendly defeat to Hungary in March, proving that Estonia are capable of giving Europe's stronger sides a run for their money.

In terms of the bigger, the Sinisargid have lost just two of their previous 10 matches across all competitions, picking up five wins and three draws in the process, in addition to four clean sheets for good measure.

After taking a solitary point from a possible 24 during Euro 2020 qualification, Estonia claimed four points as they finished second from bottom in their 2022 World Cup qualifying group, marking a slight improvement while achieving something to build on.

Team News

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Gianni De Biasi will likely deploy a 4-3-3 formation on Saturday, with Ramil Sheydayev and Toral Bayramov joining Grasshopper Zurich striker Renat Dadashov in Azerbaijan's forward line.

Only a handful of players in Azerbaijan's squad play their club football outside of their homeland, with defender Anton Kryvotsyuk – who belongs to South Korean side Daejeon Citizen – expected to partner Qarabag FK's Bahlul Mustafazada at centre-back.

As for Estonia, 21-year-old Arsenal goalkeeper Karl Hein will start between the sticks on Saturday, while the visitors' three-man backline will include St Pauli defender Karol Mets.

Captain Konstantin Vassiljev is in line to make his 151st international appearance this weekend, with the 38-year-old expected to join Mattias Kait and Martin Miller in midfield.

Having scored three goals in his last six international appearances, Rauno Sappinen will continue to lead the line for Estonia, but he will not be joined by fellow forward Sergei Zenjov, who remains on the sidelines due to injury.

Azerbaijan possible starting lineup:
Balayev; Haghverdi, Mustafazada, Kryvotsyuk, Cafarguliyev; Mahmudov, Almeida, Isayev; Bayramov, Dadashov, Sheydayev

Estonia possible starting lineup:
Hein; Baranov, Tamm, Mets; Teniste, Vassiljev, Kait, Miller, Lukka; Sorga, Sappinen

We say: Azerbaijan 0-1 Estonia

Given that Estonia pushed Austria all the way in their opening qualifier, we expect the visitors to claim a narrow victory over Azerbaijan, who have already conceded nine goals across two defeats this campaign.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

Written by
Ben Morris

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