The Portuguese Primeira Liga returns with a fresh set of fixtures as Arouca and Pacos de Ferreira go head to head at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca on Saturday.
Having failed to win any of the last five meetings between the sides since 2016, the Arouquenses will head into the game desperate to get one over the visitors.
Match preview
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Arouca continue to struggle for form in the Primeira Liga as they fell to a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Sporting Lisbon at the Estadio Jose Alvalade last Saturday.
Following an uneventful first half, the game sparked into life in the 46th minute when Islam Slimani opened the scoring before the former Leicester City man made sure of the result with his second of the game six minutes later.
Arouca head into Saturday's game winless in five of their last six games — losing three and claiming two draws — with a 3-1 victory at Vitoria de Guimaraes on February 19 being the only exception.
With 22 points from 25, Armando Evangelista's side are currently 15th in the Primeira Liga standings, one point above 16th-placed Tondela in the relegation playoff spot.
Their struggles this season has been down to their defensive frailties as they boast the league's worst defensive record with 45 goals conceded and just two clean sheets to date.
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Pacos de Ferreira, on the other hand, were denied a third win on the bounce last time out when they fell to a 4-2 home defeat at the hands of title-chasing Porto.
In a thrilling contest, Juan Delgado scored on the half-hour mark to cancel out Pepe's 17th-minute strike, but Porto went three goals ahead courtesy of a brace from Evanilson and Mehdi Taremi's 59th-minute strike before Nicolas Gaitan halved the deficit in the 66th minute.
Prior to that, Cesar Peixoto's men snapped their six-game winless run courtesy of a 2-1 victory over Vizela on February 19, before traveling to the Estadio Nacional do Jamor where they saw off Belenenses 2-0 six days later.
Pacos de Ferreira have won six, drawn nine and lost 10 of their 25 games this season to collect 27 points and sit in 11th place in the Primeira Liga standings, two points off Santa Clara in the top half of the table.
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Team News
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Arouca will have to make do with several injury concerns down the spine of the team as the likes of Fernando Augusto and Jose Manuel Velazquez have been sidelined through shoulder and knee injuries respectively.
Newly-signed midfielder Wellington Nem, who completed a January move from Brazilian outfit Cruzeiro, awaits his debut after sustaining an injury back in November.
Oday Dabbagh is set to sit out his sixth consecutive game after suffering an injury against Famalicao back in January, while Moses Yaw has been out of action since last April through a severe muscle problem.
As for the visitors, Flavio is out of contention as he continues his journey to full fitness after sustaining a muscle injury in November's game against Maritimo.
Peixoto will also be unable to call upon the services of Joao Vigario after the Portuguese defender suffered a knee injury last April, while 25-year-old Jorge Silva misses out through an ankle problem.
Pacos de Ferreira will also have to make do with the absence of French youngster Ndri Koffi after the 20-year-old forward came off injured against Braga on February 12.
Arouca possible starting lineup:
Braga; Esgaio, Basso, Galovic, Quaresma; L Silva, Moreira, Simao; Bukia, Alves, A Silva
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Ferreira; Antunes, Maracas, Baixinho, Fonseca; Carlos, Pires; Delgado, Djalo, Santos; Denilson
We say: Arouca 1-2 Pacos de Ferreira
Despite their defeat against Porto, Peixoto will be impressed with his side's resilient display against the league leaders and will charge them to take the positives from that performance. Arouca have managed just one draw from their last six home games and we predict the visitors will extend their dominance in the recent history of this fixture and come away with all three points.
Top tip
Joshua Ojele
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 35.93%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 34.07% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.19%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (12.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.
