Angola's World Cup 2022 dream could be all but over if they do not pick up their first win in the CAF qualification Group F against Gabon on Friday, with the visitors also in need of a vital three points.
Gabon have secured one point from their opening two group games in this World Cup qualification campaign, placing them five points behind leaders Libya with four games to play.
Match preview
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Last month, Angola faced a trip to play against Egypt and they then hosted Libya a week later, but both of those games ended in defeat for Pedro Goncalves's side, by a scoreline of 1-0.
Their opening fixture of this qualifying campaign against Egypt was settled by a fifth-minute penalty which was converted by Mohamed Kafsha, and Angola failed to find the back of the net in their following game also.
When Angola hosted Libya at the Estadio 11 de Novembro last time out, the home team fell to another first-half strike, this time from Libya's Omar Al Khoja.
Goncalves's side's last victory came against Friday's opponents at the end of March, when Show and Loide Augusto sealed a win in the Africa Cup of Nations, which could give the home side confidence heading into this must-win fixture with Gabon.
Patrice Neveu's team have shown more attacking threat than Angola in Group F, scoring twice in their first two fixtures, but they only managed to pick up one point in September's international break.
Gabon got their qualifying campaign off to a good start in their opening outing against Libya, after Andre Poko had given Gabon an early lead, but Sanad Al Warfali completed Libya's turnaround in the 90th minute to win the game for the home side.
Another late goal denied Gabon three points last time out when they welcomed Egypt to the Stade de Franceville, where Jim Allevinah's 73rd-minute finish was cancelled out in stoppage time at the end of the second half by Egypt's Mostafa Mohamed.
With four games to play in the CAF World Cup qualifiers, Gabon realistically need to win every game to stand a chance of finishing in top spot in Group F, and they will believe they can achieve that if they stop conceding crucial late goals.
However, Gabon's away form is not good entering this game, having not won away from Franceville since 2019 and losing their last three matches on their travels.
These two teams meet twice in this international window, with their second meeting coming on Monday, giving either team a great opportunity to put themselves into contention for top spot in November should they complete a double over this month's opponent.
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Team News
Goncalves only made two changes from the side which lost to Egypt to the team that started against Libya, with Kadu replacing Hugo Marques between the posts and midfielder Ary Papel replacing Joao Batxi.
Attacking players Vladimiro Antonio and Fabio Abreu will want to find the back of the net this week, after Angola drew a blank in both of their opening games, and they need to pose more of a threat in front of goal if the team are going to pick up points in Group F.
Poko, Johann Obiang and Guelor Kanga all started both games in midfield for Gabon in September, and they are expected to start again on Friday, with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang leading the line for his country.
Goalkeeper Anthony Mfa Meuzi will want to keep his first clean sheet of this qualifying campaign on Friday, with the help of his defence which Dijon centre-back Ecuele Manga will be at the heart of.
Angola possible starting lineup:
Marques; Nurio, Bastos, Buatu, Mata; Fredy, Estrela, Balbudia; Abreu, Antonio, Geraldo
Gabon possible starting lineup:
Meuzi; Oyono, Manga, Ndong, Palun; Poko, Obiang, Kanga; Boupendza, Aubameyang, Lemina
We say: Angola 1-2 Gabon
Angola are unlikely to achieve top spot in Group F during this World Cup qualifying campaign, but Gabon still have hope of reaching Qatar 2022, if they win Friday's clash in Luanda.
Gabon will take confidence from their 1-1 draw with Egypt, and they will know that they can go one better against Angola and secure three points, having beaten them relatively recently in the Africa Cup of Nations.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gabon win with a probability of 44.02%. A win for Angola had a probability of 32.19% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gabon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.8%) and 0-2 (6.5%). The likeliest Angola win was 2-1 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.
