Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sirius win with a probability of 39%. A win for Elfsborg had a probability of 38.18% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sirius win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.9%) and 2-0 (4.97%). The likeliest Elfsborg win was 1-2 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sirius would win this match.