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Preview: Arthur Fils vs. Roberto Carballes Baena - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Friday's Shanghai Masters second-round match between Arthur Fils and Roberto Carballes Baena, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Fresh off his incredible title win in Tokyo, Arthur Fils heads into the Shanghai Masters keen to get the better of Spaniard Roberto Carballes Baena in Friday's second-round tussle.

Having never made it past the third round of any Masters 1000 event, the 20-year-old Frenchman will hope the momentum of recent success in Japan aids a positive run.


Match preview

Arthur Fils at the Japan Open on October 1, 2024© Imago

Fils' only Tour-level titles before this year's Asian swing were on clay — in Lyon last year and Hamburg three months back — but the young player notched his first title outside the surface with a thrilling three-set triumph against countryman Ugo Humbert this week, sealing a third ATP crown and second ATP 500 win.

The 20-year-old saved a match point in the second set en route to success in Japan and seeks to build on that victory by making the most of that momentum for a deep run in Shanghai over the next week or so.

The Frenchman has no reason to lack confidence having defeated four top-20 opponents in Tokyo — Taylor Fritz, defending champion Ben Shelton, Holger Rune and Humbert — ahead of the ongoing Masters event, where he seeks to at least match last year's run when he made it to the third round before losing to Fritz.

Much will depend on the three-time tour-level champion's physical shape, as he seemed to be in the wars during the Tokyo final against Humbert, and the severity of that issue or otherwise could decide Friday's round-two match with Carballes Baena.

The 31-year-old Spaniard defeated countryman and veteran Roberto Bautista Agut 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in his tournament opener but must raise his game to match the in-form Fils.

However, facing the Frenchman brings ominous signs for the experienced player, who has not advanced to a third match at any 1000 event in 2024, suffering losses to Daniil Medvedev at Indian Wells, Carlos Alcaraz in Miami, Alexander Bublik in Madrid and Alex de Minaur in Rome.

He returns to the main draw of a Masters event for the first time since losing to the Australian in May, keen to finally end that sequence of second-round losses to higher-ranked opponents.

Although the world No. 54 has typically found opponents of Fils's standard hard to overcome, he aims to snap that sequence of disappointing results against a player 11 years his junior.


Tournament so far

Arthur Fils:

First round: Bye

Roberto Carballes Baena:

First round: vs. Roberto Bautista Agut 3-6 6-3 6-2


Head To Head

Friday's match-up between Fils and Carballes Baena will be their first on the ATP Tour, posing a challenge for both players.

Fils is having a breakout year, securing his second Tour title in Tokyo, edging ahead of the experienced Spaniard for overall tournament wins.


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We say: Fils to win in two sets

Although Carballes Baena will back himself to push Fils to a decider, looking to capitalise on any complacency following the Frenchman's recent ATP 500 triumph, the 20-year-old should avoid an upset to book a third-round place.

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