Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 75.89%. A draw had a probability of 14% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 10.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 3-0 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.97%), while for a St Louis City win it was 1-2 (2.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Los Angeles FC would win this match.
Result | ||
Los Angeles FC | Draw | St Louis City |
75.89% ( -0.45) | 13.96% ( 0.01) | 10.15% ( 0.44) |
Both teams to score 59.46% ( 1.98) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
74.2% ( 1.47) | 25.8% ( -1.47) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
54.04% ( 1.88) | 45.96% ( -1.87) |
Los Angeles FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.35% ( 0.24) | 5.65% ( -0.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
78.11% ( 0.67) | 21.88% ( -0.67) |
St Louis City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.02% ( 1.94) | 36.98% ( -1.94) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.23% ( 1.88) | 73.76% ( -1.88) |
Score Analysis |
Los Angeles FC | Draw | St Louis City |
2-0 @ 8.63% ( -0.56) 2-1 @ 8.58% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 8.26% ( -0.41) 3-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6% ( -0.49) 4-0 @ 5.94% ( -0.21) 4-1 @ 5.91% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 4.09% ( 0.22) 5-0 @ 3.41% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.11) 4-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.2) 5-2 @ 1.69% ( 0.14) 6-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) 6-1 @ 1.63% ( 0.07) 4-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.11) Other @ 4.61% Total : 75.89% | 1-1 @ 5.97% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 4.27% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 2.09% ( -0.2) 3-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.14) Other @ 0.27% Total : 13.96% | 1-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.08) Other @ 1.67% Total : 10.15% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 49 | 30 | 74 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 40 | 32 | 66 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 59 |
4 | Orlando City | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 52 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 51 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 49 | 5 | 50 |
7 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 47 |
8 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 43 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 40 |
10 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 40 |
11 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 62 | 55 | 7 | 37 |
12 | Toronto | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 37 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 36 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 64 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 64 |
3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 59 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 57 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 54 |
6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 52 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 50 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 47 |
9 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
10 | Austin FCAustin | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 42 |
11 | Dallas | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 54 | 56 | -2 | 41 |
12 | St Louis City | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 34 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 21 |