Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 68.24%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 14.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.61%) and 3-1 (7.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.48%), while for a St Louis City win it was 1-2 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result | ||
Portland Timbers | Draw | St Louis City |
68.24% ( 0.06) | 17.18% ( -0.02) | 14.58% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 60.98% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
69.71% ( -0.02) | 30.28% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
48.46% ( -0.02) | 51.53% ( 0.02) |
Portland Timbers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.86% ( 0.01) | 8.13% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
71.46% ( 0.02) | 28.54% ( -0.02) |
St Louis City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.38% ( -0.07) | 33.62% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.73% ( -0.07) | 70.26% ( 0.07) |
Score Analysis |
Portland Timbers | Draw | St Louis City |
2-1 @ 9.38% 2-0 @ 8.61% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.85% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.2% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.86% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.92% ( 0) 4-0 @ 4.52% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.68% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.47% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.35% ( -0) 6-1 @ 1.03% ( 0) 4-3 @ 0.98% ( -0) 6-0 @ 0.95% ( 0) Other @ 2.9% Total : 68.24% | 1-1 @ 7.48% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.73% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.3% Total : 17.18% | 1-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 2.98% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.62% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.56% Total : 14.58% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 49 | 30 | 74 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 40 | 32 | 66 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 59 |
4 | Orlando City | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 52 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 51 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 49 | 5 | 50 |
7 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 47 |
8 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 43 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 40 |
10 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 40 |
11 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 62 | 55 | 7 | 37 |
12 | Toronto | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 37 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 36 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 64 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 64 |
3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 59 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 57 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 54 |
6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 52 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 50 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 47 |
9 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
10 | Austin FCAustin | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 42 |
11 | Dallas | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 54 | 56 | -2 | 41 |
12 | St Louis City | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 34 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 21 |