Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 68.24%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 14.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.61%) and 3-1 (7.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.48%), while for a St Louis City win it was 1-2 (4.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result | ||
Portland Timbers | Draw | St Louis City |
68.24% ( 0.06) | 17.18% ( -0.02) | 14.58% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 60.98% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
69.71% ( -0.02) | 30.28% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
48.46% ( -0.02) | 51.53% ( 0.02) |
Portland Timbers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.86% ( 0.01) | 8.13% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
71.46% ( 0.02) | 28.54% ( -0.02) |
St Louis City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.38% ( -0.07) | 33.62% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.73% ( -0.07) | 70.26% ( 0.07) |
Score Analysis |
Portland Timbers | Draw | St Louis City |
2-1 @ 9.38% 2-0 @ 8.61% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.85% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.2% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.86% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 4.92% ( 0) 4-0 @ 4.52% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.68% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.47% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.35% ( -0) 6-1 @ 1.03% ( 0) 4-3 @ 0.98% ( -0) 6-0 @ 0.95% ( 0) Other @ 2.9% Total : 68.24% | 1-1 @ 7.48% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 2.73% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.3% Total : 17.18% | 1-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 2.98% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.62% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.56% Total : 14.58% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 31 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 69 | 45 | 24 | 65 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 57 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 31 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 53 | 41 | 12 | 56 |
4 | Orlando City | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 46 |
5 | New York City FCNY City | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 44 |
6 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 31 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 44 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 42 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 37 |
9 | CF MontrealMontreal | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 37 |
10 | Toronto | 32 | 11 | 4 | 17 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 37 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 34 |
12 | DC United | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 63 | -17 | 34 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 31 | 47 | -16 | 33 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 30 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 33 | 60 | -27 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 37 | 55 | -18 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 46 | 17 | 58 |
2 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 31 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 52 |
3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 54 | 41 | 13 | 52 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 50 |
5 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 53 | 5 | 50 |
6 | Houston DynamoHouston | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 34 | 9 | 48 |
7 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 50 | 41 | 9 | 47 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 45 |
9 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 45 |
10 | Dallas | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 37 |
11 | Austin FCAustin | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 36 |
12 | St Louis City | 31 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 34 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 50 | 61 | -11 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 31 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 37 | 72 | -35 | 18 |