Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 46.66%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 30.31% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.35%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-2 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Louis City would win this match.
Result | ||
St Louis City | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
46.66% ( -0.15) | 23.02% ( -0.02) | 30.31% ( 0.17) |
Both teams to score 62.8% ( 0.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.82% ( 0.19) | 38.18% ( -0.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.55% ( 0.2) | 60.45% ( -0.2) |
St Louis City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.26% ( 0.02) | 16.74% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.34% ( 0.03) | 46.65% ( -0.03) |
San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.42% ( 0.2) | 24.58% ( -0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.93% ( 0.28) | 59.07% ( -0.28) |
Score Analysis |
St Louis City | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
2-1 @ 9.22% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.35% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 6.57% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.5% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.46% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.75% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.32% Total : 46.66% | 1-1 @ 10.31% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.47% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.11% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.01% | 1-2 @ 7.24% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5.77% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.05% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.39% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 3.03% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.69% Total : 30.31% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 31 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 69 | 45 | 24 | 65 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 57 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 31 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 53 | 41 | 12 | 56 |
4 | Orlando City | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 46 |
5 | New York City FCNY City | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 44 |
6 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 31 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 44 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 42 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 37 |
9 | CF MontrealMontreal | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 37 |
10 | Toronto | 32 | 11 | 4 | 17 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 37 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 34 |
12 | DC United | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 63 | -17 | 34 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 31 | 47 | -16 | 33 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 30 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 33 | 60 | -27 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 37 | 55 | -18 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 46 | 17 | 58 |
2 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 31 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 52 |
3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 54 | 41 | 13 | 52 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 50 |
5 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 53 | 5 | 50 |
6 | Houston DynamoHouston | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 34 | 9 | 48 |
7 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 50 | 41 | 9 | 47 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 45 |
9 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 45 |
10 | Dallas | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 37 |
11 | Austin FCAustin | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 36 |
12 | St Louis City | 31 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 34 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 50 | 61 | -11 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 31 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 37 | 72 | -35 | 18 |