Major League Soccer

Jun 1, 2024 at 12.30am UK

Yankee Stadium

NY City
5 - 1
Earthquakes

Wolf (50'), Rodriguez (80'), Martinez (85', 90+2', 90+5')
Fernandez (15'), Tanasijevic (17'), Sands (60')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Pellegrino (53')
Yueill (23')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and San Jose Earthquakes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

New York City FC

All competitions

Last Game: New England 0-1 NY City
Sunday, May 26 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions

Last Game: Earthquakes 1-1 Austin
Sunday, May 26 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

We said: New York City FC 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes

New York City have been in excellent form recently and head into this match having lost just one of their last six league games and riding a four-match winning streak. On the flip side, San Jose are winless in their last three and have been shipping goals in bulk on the road this season. Based on the current form of both these sides, we feel the hosts will secure all three points in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 54.69%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 22.46%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.

Result
New York City FC	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
54.69% ( -0.02)	22.85% ( 0.1)	22.46% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 55.79% (

-0.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.93% (

-0.54)

44.07% (

0.54)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.55% (

-0.53)

66.45% (

0.53)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.98% (

-0.2)

16.02% (

0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.65% (

-0.37)

45.35% (

0.37)

San Jose Earthquakes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.43% (

-0.37)

33.57% (

0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.78% (

-0.41)

70.22% (

0.41)

Score Analysis

New York City FC 54.69%

San Jose Earthquakes 22.46%

Draw 22.84%

New York City FC	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
1-0 @ 9.85% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 9.84% ( -0) 2-0 @ 9.02% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 6.01% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 5.51% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.28% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 2.75% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 2.52% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.47% Total : 54.69%	1-1 @ 10.74% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.38% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 5.37% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.84%	0-1 @ 5.87% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 5.87% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 3.2% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.27% Total : 22.46%