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Women's Super League | Gameweek 1
Oct 1, 2023 at 12.30pm UK
Villa Park

Aston Villa
1 - 2
Man Utd Women

Daly (76')
Parker (14'), Corsie (26'), Leon (83')
Hanson (74')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Garcia (79'), Deman (90+2')
Ferreira (33'), Toone (43'), Garcia (90+10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Women's Super League clash between Aston Villa Women and Manchester United Women, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Aston Villa Women 1-2 Manchester United Women

We expect Sunday's opener to be a closely-fought contest, but we think that Man United have the extra quality required to get their campaign up and running with a narrow victory at Villa Park. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United Women win with a probability of 72.59%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Aston Villa Women had a probability of 10.33%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United Women win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.94%) and 0-3 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.12%), while for an Aston Villa Women win it was 1-0 (3.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Manchester United Women in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Manchester United Women.

Result
Aston Villa WomenDrawManchester United Women
10.33% (0.484 0.48) 17.07% (0.11 0.11) 72.59% (-0.593 -0.59)
Both teams to score 47.15% (1.508 1.51)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.74% (0.986 0.99)41.26% (-0.984 -0.98)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.34% (0.992 0.99)63.65% (-0.992 -0.99)
Aston Villa Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.36% (1.613 1.61)47.63% (-1.611 -1.61)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.04% (1.169 1.17)82.96% (-1.168 -1.17)
Manchester United Women Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.03% (0.11199999999999 0.11)9.96% (-0.11 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.05% (0.255 0.25)32.94% (-0.253 -0.25)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa Women 10.33%
    Manchester United Women 72.59%
    Draw 17.07%
Aston Villa WomenDrawManchester United Women
1-0 @ 3.52% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-1 @ 3.01% (0.153 0.15)
2-0 @ 1.31% (0.06 0.06)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 10.33%
1-1 @ 8.12% (0.052 0.05)
0-0 @ 4.75% (-0.215 -0.22)
2-2 @ 3.47% (0.193 0.19)
Other @ 0.74%
Total : 17.07%
0-2 @ 12.62% (-0.44 -0.44)
0-1 @ 10.94% (-0.44 -0.44)
0-3 @ 9.7% (-0.295 -0.3)
1-2 @ 9.36% (0.105 0.11)
1-3 @ 7.2% (0.114 0.11)
0-4 @ 5.59% (-0.143 -0.14)
1-4 @ 4.15% (0.085 0.09)
2-3 @ 2.67% (0.16 0.16)
0-5 @ 2.58% (-0.053 -0.05)
1-5 @ 1.91% (0.048 0.05)
2-4 @ 1.54% (0.099 0.1)
0-6 @ 0.99% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 3.34%
Total : 72.59%

Head to Head
Apr 28, 2023 7.15pm
Gameweek 19
Aston Villa
2-3
Man Utd Women
Daly (9', 37')
Galton (15'), Parris (62'), Turner (90+3')
Dec 3, 2022 12.30pm
Gameweek 9
Man Utd Women
5-0
Aston Villa
Zelem (13'), Galton (28'), Russo (51'), Batlle (76'), Deman (90+3')
Apr 24, 2022 6pm
Dec 19, 2021 12pm
Gameweek 10
Man Utd Women
5-0
Aston Villa
Toone (8', 79'), Zelem (13' pen.), Staniforth (50'), Thomas (73')
Hanson (76'), Ladd (90+1')

Littlejohn (52'), Mayling (81'), Boye-Hlorkah (87')
Mar 7, 2021 12pm
Gameweek 11
Man Utd Women
3-0
Aston Villa
Hanson (27'), Sigsworth (43'), Zelem (73')
Staniforth (45')

N'Dow (71')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS


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