Man City have won nine of their 10 away league matches, and we think that they will produce another strong away performance to claim all three points, but they may struggle to achieve the three-goal swing in goal difference and such a scenario would leave them relying on a favour from their local rivals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Women win with a probability of 77.59%. A draw had a probability of 13.5% and a win for Aston Villa Women had a probability of 8.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Women win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.22%) and 1-2 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.08%), while for an Aston Villa Women win it was 2-1 (2.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City Women would win this match.

Result
Aston Villa Women	Draw	Manchester City Women
8.86% ( -0.93)	13.55% ( -1.12)	77.59% ( 2.05)

Both teams to score 55.21% (

0.74)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

71.77% (

2.72)

28.23% (

-2.72)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

50.97% (

3.3)

49.02% (

-3.3)

Aston Villa Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.65% (

0.19)

41.35% (

-0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.13% (

0.16)

77.86% (

-0.17)

Manchester City Women Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.13% (

0.96)

5.87% (

-0.96)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

77.49% (

2.66)

22.51% (

-2.66)

Score Analysis

Aston Villa Women 8.86%

Manchester City Women 77.59%

Draw 13.55%

Aston Villa Women	Draw	Manchester City Women
2-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.26) 1-0 @ 2.14% ( -0.35) 3-2 @ 1.12% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.15) Other @ 1.97% Total : 8.86%	1-1 @ 6.08% ( -0.61) 2-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 2.43% ( -0.41) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.18% Total : 13.55%	0-2 @ 9.76% ( -0.46) 0-3 @ 9.22% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 8.62% ( -0.36) 1-3 @ 8.14% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 6.88% ( -0.73) 0-4 @ 6.54% ( 0.4) 1-4 @ 5.77% ( 0.39) 0-5 @ 3.71% ( 0.42) 2-3 @ 3.6% ( 0.07) 1-5 @ 3.27% ( 0.38) 2-4 @ 2.55% ( 0.18) 0-6 @ 1.75% ( 0.28) 1-6 @ 1.55% ( 0.25) 2-5 @ 1.45% ( 0.18) Other @ 4.79% Total : 77.59%