Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Women win with a probability of 74.44%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Aston Villa Women had a probability of 8.91%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Women win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.13%) and 0-3 (10.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.88%), while for an Aston Villa Women win it was 1-0 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal Women would win this match.