Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 57.74%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 19.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.89%), while for a Connah's Quay Nomads win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.