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Istanbul Basaksehir
Turkish Cup | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
May 4, 2023 at 6.30pm UK
Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Istanbul
1 - 0
Ankaragucu

Figueiredo (90+5')
Aleksic (4'), Biglia (55'), Erkin (72'), Sengezer (78')
Touba (42')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Malcuit (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Turkish Cup clash between Istanbul Basaksehir and Ankaragucu, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Giresunspor 2-4 Istanbul
Monday, April 24 at 3pm in Turkish Super Lig
Last Game: Ankaragucu 0-0 Kasimpasa
Saturday, April 29 at 5pm in Turkish Super Lig

We said: Istanbul Basaksehir 2-0 Ankaragucu

Istanbul Basaksehir will know they must make the most of home advantage in this two-legged tie, and with slightly more quality in their ranks than the visitors, we back them to take an aggregate lead on Thursday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Istanbul Basaksehir win with a probability of 48.83%. A win for Ankaragucu had a probability of 27.34% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Istanbul Basaksehir win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.12%) and 2-0 (7.8%). The likeliest Ankaragucu win was 1-2 (6.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Istanbul Basaksehir would win this match.

Result
Istanbul BasaksehirDrawAnkaragucu
48.83% (0.254 0.25) 23.83% (-0.595 -0.59) 27.34% (0.34 0.34)
Both teams to score 57.76% (2.275 2.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.12% (2.873 2.87)43.88% (-2.875 -2.88)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.74% (2.748 2.75)66.26% (-2.75 -2.75)
Istanbul Basaksehir Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.91% (1.218 1.22)18.09% (-1.219 -1.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.98% (2.044 2.04)49.02% (-2.046 -2.05)
Ankaragucu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.52% (1.755 1.76)29.48% (-1.754 -1.75)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.51% (2.091 2.09)65.49% (-2.093 -2.09)
Score Analysis
    Istanbul Basaksehir 48.83%
    Ankaragucu 27.34%
    Draw 23.82%
Istanbul BasaksehirDrawAnkaragucu
2-1 @ 9.52% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
1-0 @ 9.12% (-0.801 -0.8)
2-0 @ 7.8% (-0.361 -0.36)
3-1 @ 5.43% (0.224 0.22)
3-0 @ 4.44% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3.31% (0.287 0.29)
4-1 @ 2.32% (0.181 0.18)
4-0 @ 1.9% (0.061 0.06)
4-2 @ 1.42% (0.172 0.17)
Other @ 3.58%
Total : 48.83%
1-1 @ 11.13% (-0.41 -0.41)
2-2 @ 5.82% (0.293 0.29)
0-0 @ 5.33% (-0.698 -0.7)
3-3 @ 1.35% (0.175 0.18)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 23.82%
1-2 @ 6.8% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
0-1 @ 6.51% (-0.504 -0.5)
0-2 @ 3.98% (-0.106 -0.11)
1-3 @ 2.77% (0.165 0.17)
2-3 @ 2.37% (0.226 0.23)
0-3 @ 1.62% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 27.34%

How you voted: Istanbul vs Ankaragucu

Istanbul Basaksehir
82.1%
Draw
14.3%
Ankaragucu
3.6%
28
Head to Head
Apr 1, 2023 2pm
gameweek 27
Istanbul
1-0
Ankaragucu
Gurler (36')
Aleksic (44'), Figueiredo (47'), Touba (69')

Kilinc (40'), Diack (62')
Oct 1, 2022 3pm
gameweek 8
Ankaragucu
1-2
Istanbul
Cigerci (55' pen.)
Okaka (3'), Turuc (81')
Ali Sahiner (28')
May 3, 2021 2pm
gameweek 39
Istanbul
2-1
Ankaragucu
Aleksic (63'), Fernandes (88')
Chadli (17'), Aleksic (48'), Fernandes (90')
Paintsil (15')
Sarlija (17'), Kitsiou (43'), Lukasik (58'), Cekici (59'), Kulusic (79')
Jan 10, 2021 1pm
gameweek 18
Ankaragucu
1-2
Istanbul
Cekici (20')
Cankaya (45'), Turan (48')
Visca (17'), Ba (56')
Kahveci (45'), Da Silva (79'), Aleksic (90+3')
Jun 19, 2020 7pm
gameweek 28
Ankaragucu
1-2
Istanbul
Rodrigues (12' pen.)
Lukasik (40'), Faty (48'), Rodrigues (61'), Kitsiou (65')
Aleksic (59'), Visca (73')
Skrtel (10'), Aleksic (61'), Crivelli (76'), Gunok (90+1')
rhs 2.0
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