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Quiet transfer window on the cards for Premier League's top clubs

Quiet transfer window on the cards for Premier League's top clubs
© Reuters
Sport finance expert Dr Rob Wilson believes most spending will come from teams in the relegation battle.

Clubs in the cluttered lower reaches of the Premier League table may have a busier January when the transfer window opens on New Year's Day, according to a leading sport finance specialist.

Just past the halfway point of the season, only five points separate 14th-placed Crystal Palace from second-bottom Fulham while even some of those in the top half still have work to do to guarantee their top-flight status.

Palace manager Roy Hodgson has already publicly earmarked Liverpool forward Dominic Solanke as a target as clubs look to strengthen their squads and any early movement could set a precedent for the month.

Premier League January spending
(PA Graphic)

That is the opinion of Dr Rob Wilson, the principal lecturer in sport finance at Sheffield Hallam University, who told Press Association Sport: "I think there will be a higher volume of activity towards the bottom end as opposed to the top six.

"Historically, if one of the big six hasn't gone out and bought a particularly expensive player – £40-£50million-plus – what we've seen is more activity down the bottom end of the table with clubs trying to get away from the relegation battle.

"There are so many down there within two or three points, it's whoever blinks first.

"If nobody does anything early in the window then you can expect it to be fairly quiet.

Crystal Palace manager Roy Hodgson, pictured, has admitted his interest in Dominic Solanke (Adam Davy/PA)
Crystal Palace manager Roy Hodgson, pictured, has admitted his interest in Liverpool's Dominic Solanke (Adam Davy/PA)

"If someone goes for it on New Year's Day or on January 2 then you will probably see a lot of clubs start scrambling around to try to make sure they keep pace."

Burnley, Fulham and Huddersfield currently occupy the relegation spots and Wilson would not be taken aback if those three clubs cannot improve their situation.

While Burnley and rock-bottom Huddersfield have similar business models which discourage heavy spending, Fulham's hands may be tied by Financial Fair Play after laying out around £100m in the summer.

Wilson said: "I think it's going to be an interesting window. I've never known a Premier League so settled.

The financial models of Burnley and Huddersfield discourage heavy spending (Anthony Devlin/PA)
The financial models of Burnley and Huddersfield discourage heavy spending (Anthony Devlin/PA)

"It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if the bottom three that we currently have are the bottom three we end up with."

Wilson expects a more subdued January than 12 months ago, when the top 20 league clubs spent an estimated £430m, almost double the previous record of £225m for a winter window.

Indeed, clubs who have switched or are about to change managers could be the catalyst in the coming weeks.

Ralph Hasenhuttl, pictured, replaced Mark Hughes at Southampton (Andrew Matthews/PA)
Ralph Hasenhuttl, pictured, replaced Mark Hughes at Southampton (Andrew Matthews/PA)

Wilson added: "I think what will drive this market is managerial change.

"So clubs that have changed managers – Southampton, for example (who sacked Mark Hughes earlier this month and replaced him with Ralph Hasenhuttl) – might look at bringing a couple of players in because they will tend to look at their situation and think 'we're happy with our structure, let's let this guy bring somebody in'.

"I think we'll probably see a quieter window in general terms. My gut feeling is that it's going to be less, based on what clubs spent last summer."

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Brighton manager Chris Hughton pictured on December 29, 2018
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TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
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2Manchester CityMan City127232217523
3Chelsea126422314922
4Arsenal126422112922
5Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton126422116522
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7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest125431513219
8Aston Villa125431919019
9Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
10Fulham125341717018
11Brentford125252222017
12Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
13Bournemouth124351617-115
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Everton122551017-711
16Leicester CityLeicester122461523-810
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves122372028-89
18Crystal Palace121561017-78
19Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
20Southampton121110924-154


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