Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 43.45%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.5%) and 2-1 (8.47%). The likeliest SPAL win was 0-1 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Pisa in this match.