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Serie A | Gameweek 3
Sep 3, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Fiorentina logo

Inter Milan
4 - 0
Fiorentina

Thuram (23'), Martinez (53', 73'), Calhanoglu (58' pen.)
Barella (45+6')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Ranieri (39'), Italiano (60+60')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Inter Milan and Fiorentina, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Fiorentina 2-0 Rapid Vienna
Thursday, August 31 at 7pm in Europa Conference League

We said: Inter Milan 2-1 Fiorentina

Both teams have started productively this season, so several goals could be on the cards - if not quite the total of seven shared out in last autumn's thriller. Inter's squad is more settled than Fiorentina's, which has been in flux right up until deadline day, and they should start September with a win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 41.83%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 32.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.

Result
Inter MilanDrawFiorentina
41.83% (0.485 0.48) 25.65% (0.377 0.38) 32.52% (-0.859 -0.86)
Both teams to score 54.66% (-1.544 -1.54)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.71% (-1.881 -1.88)49.29% (1.882 1.88)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.65% (-1.718 -1.72)71.34% (1.72 1.72)
Inter Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.6% (-0.581 -0.58)23.4% (0.584 0.58)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.62% (-0.853 -0.85)57.38% (0.856 0.86)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.36% (-1.461 -1.46)28.64% (1.463 1.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.55% (-1.865 -1.87)64.45% (1.867 1.87)
Score Analysis
    Inter Milan 41.83%
    Fiorentina 32.52%
    Draw 25.65%
Inter MilanDrawFiorentina
1-0 @ 9.73% (0.571 0.57)
2-1 @ 8.84% (0.019 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.07% (0.299 0.3)
3-1 @ 4.28% (-0.065 -0.06)
3-0 @ 3.42% (0.088 0.09)
3-2 @ 2.68% (-0.154 -0.15)
4-1 @ 1.55% (-0.051 -0.05)
4-0 @ 1.24% (0.011 0.01)
4-2 @ 0.97% (-0.074 -0.07)
Other @ 2.03%
Total : 41.83%
1-1 @ 12.17% (0.24 0.24)
0-0 @ 6.7% (0.501 0.5)
2-2 @ 5.53% (-0.219 -0.22)
3-3 @ 1.12% (-0.114 -0.11)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.65%
0-1 @ 8.38% (0.301 0.3)
1-2 @ 7.61% (-0.167 -0.17)
0-2 @ 5.24% (-0.023 -0.02)
1-3 @ 3.17% (-0.205 -0.21)
2-3 @ 2.3% (-0.192 -0.19)
0-3 @ 2.18% (-0.102 -0.1)
1-4 @ 0.99% (-0.109 -0.11)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 32.52%

How you voted: Inter Milan vs Fiorentina

Inter Milan
Draw
Fiorentina
Inter Milan
86.1%
Draw
9.7%
Fiorentina
4.2%
72
Head to Head
May 24, 2023 8pm
Final
Fiorentina
1-2
Inter Milan
Gonzalez (3')
Martinez (54'), Gonzalez (90')
Martinez (29', 37')
Bastoni (53')
Apr 1, 2023 5pm
Oct 22, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
Fiorentina
3-4
Inter Milan
Cabral (33' pen.), Ikone (60'), Jovic (90')
Barella (2'), Martinez (15', 73'), Mkhitaryan (90+5')
Mar 19, 2022 5pm
Sep 21, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 5
Fiorentina
1-3
Inter Milan
Sottil (23')
Gonzalez (78')
Gonzalez (78')
Darmian (52'), Dzeko (55'), Perisic (87')
Skriniar (18'), Darmian (63'), Calhanoglu (83')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter Milan29197365273864
2Napoli29187445232261
3Atalanta BCAtalanta29177563283558
4Bologna291411449341553
5Juventus291313345281752
6Lazio2915685041951
7Roma29147844301449
8Fiorentina29146946301648
9AC Milan29138844331147
10Udinese29117113539-440
11Torino2991193434038
12Genoa29811102837-935
13Como2978143546-1129
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona2992182958-2929
15CagliariCagliari2968152844-1626
16Parma29510143549-1425
17Lecce2967162148-2725
18Empoli29410152346-2322
19VeneziaVenezia29311152342-1920
20Monza2929182449-2515


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