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Serie A | Gameweek 36
May 11, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Cagliari logo

AC Milan
5 - 1
Cagliari

Bennacer (35'), Pulisic (59', 86'), Reijnders (74'), Leao (83')
Bennacer (28'), Gabbia (33')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Nandez (63')
Mina (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Cagliari, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 3-3 Genoa
Sunday, May 5 at 5pm in Serie A

Cagliari

All competitions
Last Game: Cagliari 1-1 Lecce
Sunday, May 5 at 11.30am in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 2-1 Cagliari

 Although Milan are clearly running out of steam as the season nears its end and are set to make several changes, Cagliari do not travel well and have a horrendous record in this fixture. Therefore, the hosts should win their first match for over a month. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 61.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 18.69%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.02%) and 1-0 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.28%), while for a Cagliari win it was 1-2 (5.08%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawCagliari
61.01% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09) 20.29% (0.036999999999999 0.04) 18.69% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
Both teams to score 58.62% (-0.052 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.49% (-0.106 -0.11)37.5% (0.107 0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.26% (-0.11499999999999 -0.11)59.73% (0.114 0.11)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.09% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)11.9% (0.055999999999999 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.77% (-0.118 -0.12)37.23% (0.117 0.12)
Cagliari Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.53% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)33.46% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.9% (-0.016000000000002 -0.02)70.09% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 61.01%
    Cagliari 18.69%
    Draw 20.29%
AC MilanDrawCagliari
2-1 @ 9.88% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 9.02% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.48% (0.025 0.03)
3-1 @ 7.01% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-0 @ 6.4% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.84% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
4-1 @ 3.73% (-0.016 -0.02)
4-0 @ 3.41% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-2 @ 2.04% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.59% (-0.01 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.45% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 4.18%
Total : 61.01%
1-1 @ 9.28% (0.023 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.41% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-0 @ 3.98% (0.02 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.4% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 20.29%
1-2 @ 5.08% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-1 @ 4.36% (0.021 0.02)
0-2 @ 2.39% (0.01 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.97% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-3 @ 1.85% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.04%
Total : 18.69%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Cagliari

AC Milan
81.5%
Draw
12.0%
Cagliari
6.5%
108
Head to Head
Jan 2, 2024 8pm
Round of 16
AC Milan
4-1
Cagliari
Jovic (29', 42'), Traore (50'), Leao (90+1')
Azzi (87')
Di Pardo (59'), Deiola (70'), Azzi (88')
> Preview
Sep 27, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 6
Cagliari
1-3
AC Milan
Luvumbo (29')
Wieteska (42'), Zappa (53'), Oristanio (78')
Okafor (40'), Tomori (45'), Loftus-Cheek (60')
Loftus-Cheek (48')
> Preview
Mar 19, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 30
Cagliari
0-1
AC Milan

Bellanova (77')
Bennacer (59')
> Preview
Aug 29, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 2
AC Milan
4-1
Cagliari
Tonali (12'), Leao (17'), Giroud (24', 43' pen.)
Diaz (73')
Deiola (15')
Henrique (5'), Deiola (38'), Strootman (41'), Godin (62'), Nandez (84')
> Preview
May 16, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 37
AC Milan
0-0
Cagliari
Kjaer (33'), Calabria (58')
Marin (40'), Carboni (45+1')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli128221991026
2Atalanta BCAtalanta1281331151625
3Fiorentina1274125101525
4Inter Milan1274126141225
5Lazio1281325141125
6Juventus126602171424
7AC Milan115332014618
8Bologna114611513218
9Udinese125161518-316
10Empoli12363910-115
11Torino124261518-314
12Roma123451417-313
13Parma122641618-212
14Hellas VeronaHellas Verona124081727-1012
15Como122461323-1010
16CagliariCagliari122461222-1010
17Genoa12246922-1310
18Lecce12237521-169
19Monza121561015-58
20VeneziaVenezia122281121-108
> Serie A Full Table


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