Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 50.41%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 23.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.21%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Krasnodar would win this match.