Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 55.67%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 21.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.61%), while for a Sporting Lisbon win it was 1-2 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Benfica in this match.