Marseille will travel to Greece on Thursday to take on PAOK in the second leg of their Europa Conference League quarter-final tie.
Following a 2-1 home win in the first leg, Les Olympiens arrive with a slender lead and in a seven-game winning run across all competitions.
Match preview
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After finishing second in their Europa Conference League group, PAOK had to fight for their place in the round of 16 in a playoff, and they eventually triumphed over Midtjylland after a penalty shootout.
Having gone on to beat Belgian outfit Gent over two legs, courtesy of a 1-0 home win and a 2-1 away triumph, Razvan Lucescu's side were given a daunting tie against French giants Marseille in the quarter-finals.
In an unenviable away trip, the White-Blacks sat two goals behind at the break, but Omar El Kaddouri quickly halved the deficit in the second half to ensure they head into the home leg with a fighting chance.
While they do come in as clear underdogs, the Greek outfit will take confidence from their run in the competition so far and will aim to upset the odds and overturn the deficit to progress to the final four.
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They welcome a Marseille side who will have their sights set on lifting the Europa Conference League trophy, having dropped into the knockout stage after failing to qualify in the Europa League.
Les Olympiens firstly thrashed Qarabag 6-1 over two legs, before seeing off Basel in the round of 16 with a pair of 2-1 wins, booking a semi-final tie with PAOK as a result.
Jorge Sampaoli's side headed into the first leg last week in fine form, having won their last five matches across all competitions, and they made a strong start, leading 2-0 at the interval thanks to a Gerson finish and a long-range stunner from Dimitri Payet.
While they will have been disappointed to concede after the break and only come away with a one-goal lead, the French outfit continued building momentum at the weekend, defeating Montpellier 2-0 to stretch their winning run to seven outings and strengthen their position in second spot in Ligue 1.
They will now turn their attention back to Europe's third competition with the aim of booking a semi-final place to add to their impressive campaign.
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Team News
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PAOK attacking midfielder Omar El Kaddouri will be pushing for a starting berth on Thursday, after he quickly found the net off the bench last week.
Former Arsenal forward Chuba Akpom should keep his place at the top end of the pitch with the additional support of winger Andrija Zivkovic, who has provided four goals and three assists in nine Conference League appearances this term.
Jasmin Kurtic is another danger man going forward, with the Slovenian having hit 18 goals across all competitions from midfield this season.
Marseille have a concerning list of suspensions to deal with, as Gerson is ruled out after his red card late in the first leg, while Boubacar Kamara and Bamba Dieng added to their tallies of yellow cards to bring up a ban alongside Sampaoli, who will also be absent from the touchline.
The losses of Kamara and Gerson leave a big gap in the midfield, and Arsenal loanee Matteo Guendouzi will be heavily relied upon in the engine room alongside Pape Gueye as a result.
Cedric Bakambu and Arkadiusz Milik may battle to lead the line, although Les Olympiens could instead opt to deploy both given the lack of midfield options, while talismanic winger Dimitri Payet will again feature after his eye-catching finish in the first leg, bringing an additional goal threat to the front line.
PAOK possible starting lineup:
Paschalakis; Lyratzis, Ingason, Crespo, Vierinha; Kurtic, Tsiggaras; Zivkovic, El Kaddouri, Augusto; Akpom
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Mandanda; Lirola, Saliba, Caleta-Car, Peres; Guendouzi, Gueye; Under, Payet; Milik, Bakambu
We say: PAOK 1-3 Marseille (Marseille win 5-2 on aggregate)
PAOK should come out firing to overturn the deficit, but that could ultimately be to their detriment as the visitors have the quality to punish them on the break.
While we fancy the Greek outfit to grab a goal, we see Sampaoli's side triumphing again and progressing with a dominant aggregate win, even without the Argentinian on the touchline.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PAOK win with a probability of 39.73%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 35.56% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a PAOK win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-2 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
