UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League D

Sep 23, 2022 at 5pm UK

Estonia
2 - 1
Malta

Sappinen (45+6' pen.), Anier (86')
Zenjov (73')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Teuma (51' pen.)
Satariano (47')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Nations League clash between Estonia and Malta, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estonia

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: Albania 0-0 Estonia
Monday, June 13 at 5pm in International Friendlies

Current League D2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Estonia	0	0	0
2	Malta	0	0	0
3	San Marino	0	0	0

Malta

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: Malta 1-0 San Marino
Sunday, June 12 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League D2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Estonia	0	0	0
2	Malta	0	0	0
3	San Marino	0	0	0

Having pushed Estonia all the way in the reverse fixture, Malta will be confident of replicating that performance on Friday. However, Estonia are playing this game with the backup of a game with San Marino still to come, and competing with less pressure should play into their favour. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estonia win with a probability of 38.66%. A win for Malta had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Malta win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estonia would win this match.

Result
Estonia	Draw	Malta
38.66% ( 0.07)	25.74%	35.6% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 55.07% (

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.93% (

49.07%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.85% (

71.15%

Estonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.07% (

0.04)

24.93% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.44% (

0.05)

59.56% (

-0.05)

Malta Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.36% (

-0.03)

26.64% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.12% (

-0.05)

61.88% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Estonia 38.66%

Malta 35.6%

Draw 25.73%

Estonia	Draw	Malta
1-0 @ 9.23% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.48% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.93% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.6% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.36% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.9% ( 0) Other @ 1.77% Total : 38.66%	1-1 @ 12.2% 0-0 @ 6.64% 2-2 @ 5.61% 3-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.73%	0-1 @ 8.78% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.07% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.56% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.47% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0) Other @ 3.17% Total : 35.6%