Major League Soccer

May 26, 2024 at 12.30am UK

BMO Field

Toronto
3 - 4
Cincinnati

Flores (25'), Murphy (63' og.), Insigne (85' pen.)
Flores (33'), Longstaff (60'), Long (78'), Insigne (90+8')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Orellano (53', 79'), Kelsy (55'), Santos (90+3')
Orellano (60'), Robinson (83'), Kelsy (90+10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and FC Cincinnati, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions

Last Game: Toronto 5-1 Montreal
Sunday, May 19 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Top scorers

FC Cincinnati

All competitions

Last Game: Cincinnati 3-1 St Louis City
Sunday, May 19 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

We said: Toronto 1-2 FC Cincinnati

The Reds are vastly improved this year, but most of their contributions have come from their Designated Players, while they have not played many solid defensive units in recent games. Cincinnati have the composure needed to handle hostile environments and thrive in close games, and that consistency could propel them to a seventh successive MLS triumph. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 45.54%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 30.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.

Result
Toronto	Draw	FC Cincinnati
45.54% ( 0.86)	23.89% ( -0.19)	30.57% ( -0.67)

Both teams to score 59.82% (

0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.84% (

0.58)

42.16% (

-0.58)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.43% (

0.57)

64.56% (

-0.57)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.26% (

0.59)

18.74% (

-0.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.88% (

0.98)

50.12% (

-0.98)

FC Cincinnati Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.62% (

-0.14)

26.38% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.46% (

-0.19)

61.53% (

0.19)

Score Analysis

Toronto 45.54%

FC Cincinnati 30.57%

Draw 23.89%

Toronto	Draw	FC Cincinnati
2-1 @ 9.24% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 8.28% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 6.93% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 5.16% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 3.87% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 3.44% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 2.16% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.41% Total : 45.54%	1-1 @ 11.03% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 6.15% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.94% ( -0.13) 3-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.89%	1-2 @ 7.35% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 6.59% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.15) 1-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.73% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 2.3% Total : 30.57%