Major League Soccer

Oct 1, 2023 at 12.30am UK

BMO Field

Toronto
2 - 3
Cincinnati

Osorio (39', 44')
Antonoglou (74'), Osei Owusu (84')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Vazquez (28', 35'), Boupendza (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and FC Cincinnati, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions

Last Game: NY City 3-0 Toronto
Sunday, September 24 at 6pm in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

FC Cincinnati

All competitions

Last Game: Cincinnati 3-0 Charlotte FC
Sunday, September 24 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

We said: Toronto 1-2 FC Cincinnati

Despite having clinched a playoff berth a long time ago, Noonan has managed to maintain a high level of intensity within this group and being a few games away from potentially making MLS history should keep them motivated this weekend. Herdman is a wonderful motivator himself who seems to have the Midas touch with the national teams he has coached, but it will take more than his inspirational words to clean up Toronto's defensive frailties.

How to watch

You can watch Toronto vs. FC Cincinnati and every MLS match this season live on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Toronto win was 2-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.

Result
Toronto	Draw	FC Cincinnati
34.18% ( 0.39)	24.97% ( 0.07)	40.85% ( -0.46)

Both teams to score 57.46% (

-0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.12% (

-0.24)

45.88% (

0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.81% (

-0.23)

68.19% (

0.23)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.03% (

0.12)

25.97% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.02% (

0.16)

60.98% (

-0.16)

FC Cincinnati Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.61% (

-0.33)

22.39% (

0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.11% (

-0.49)

55.89% (

0.49)

Score Analysis

Toronto 34.18%

FC Cincinnati 40.85%

Draw 24.97%

Toronto	Draw	FC Cincinnati
2-1 @ 7.91% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 3.56% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.36% Total : 34.18%	1-1 @ 11.73% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.97%	1-2 @ 8.78% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 8.7% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.51% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 4.38% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 3.25% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.22% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.32% Total : 40.85%