Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 55.35%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 21.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.02%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.23%), while for an Austin FC win it was 0-1 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.