The experience of Davis on the back end should make DC a tougher unit to penetrate, but getting rid of Fountas and Benteke struggling to find his form could leave DC rather thin in attack.
New York's chance creators seem to be getting healthy, and that comes at a critical juncture in the campaign, and we believe their presence along with the Red Bulls solid backline will be enough to earn them three points this weekend.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 57.56%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for DC United had a probability of 18.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.74%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (6.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for New York Red Bulls in this match.
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