Major League Soccer

Nov 27, 2023 at 12am UK

BBVA Compass Stadium

Houston
1 - 0
Kansas

Escobar (39')
Carrasquilla (68')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Leibold (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Major League Soccer clash between Houston Dynamo and Sporting Kansas City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Houston Dynamo

All competitions

Last Game: Houston 1-1 Salt Lake (4-3 pen.)
Saturday, November 11 at 11pm in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Sporting Kansas City

All competitions

Last Game: Kansas 2-1 St Louis City
Sunday, November 5 at 10pm in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

We said: Houston Dynamo 1-1 Sporting Kansas City (Sporting Kansas City advances on penalties)

Both teams exceeded expectations in the regular season, and they each have a solid midfield shape and match-winners that can make the difference up front. If the match is as close as we anticipate, it could come down to penalties, giving the visitors the edge as Tim Melia has won all seven shootouts that he has been a part of in his professional career.

How to watch

You can watch Houston Dynamo vs. Sporting Kansas City and every MLS match this season live on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 57.86%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 20.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.23%) and 2-0 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%), while for a Sporting Kansas City win it was 1-2 (5.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.

Result
Houston Dynamo	Draw	Sporting Kansas City
57.86% ( -0.22)	21.62% ( 0.22)	20.52% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 57.12% (

-0.8)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.04% (

-1.04)

40.95% (

1.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.65% (

-1.08)

63.34% (

1.07)

Houston Dynamo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.08% (

-0.41)

13.92% (

0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.64% (

-0.81)

41.36% (

0.81)

Sporting Kansas City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.35% (

-0.61)

33.64% (

0.6)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.7% (

-0.67)

70.29% (

0.66)

Score Analysis

Houston Dynamo 57.86%

Sporting Kansas City 20.52%

Draw 21.61%

Houston Dynamo	Draw	Sporting Kansas City
2-1 @ 9.92% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.23% ( 0.3) 2-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 6.52% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 3.22% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 2.95% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.08) 5-1 @ 1.27% ( -0.06) 5-0 @ 1.16% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.2% Total : 57.86%	1-1 @ 10.05% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 4.68% ( 0.22) 3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.19% Total : 21.61%	1-2 @ 5.48% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.1% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.01% ( -0) Other @ 2.2% Total : 20.52%