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Manchester City 'have 80.5% chance of retaining Premier League title'

Man City 'have 80.5% chance of retaining Premier League title'
© Reuters
Premier League leaders Manchester City have an 80.5% chance of finishing above Liverpool and retaining the title, according to stats generated by Opta.

Premier League leaders Manchester City have an 80.5% chance of retaining the title, according to stats generated by Opta.

The Citizens currently sit one point ahead of Liverpool in second place heading into the final day of the season, and victory at home against Aston Villa on Sunday will see them crowned champions regardless of whether Liverpool beat Wolverhampton Wanderers at Anfield.

Opta have created a model which displays what chance all 20 Premier League teams have in finishing in a specific position in the table.

This model suggests that Pep Guardiola's side have an 80.5% chance of finishing the season at the summit and winning the title, while Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool only have a 19.5% chance of leapfrogging the Citizens to the top of the table.

As for the top-four race, Tottenham Hotspur are the strong favourites to qualify for the Champions League according to Opta's model, as Antonio Conte's men have an 84.3% chance of consolidating fourth place, while Arsenal only have a 15.7% chance of moving above their North London rivals.

Spurs have a favourable fixture away at basement club Norwich City on Sunday, while Arsenal will play host to Everton, who confirmed their Premier League survival on Thursday.

Manchester United, meanwhile, have a 21.5% chance of slipping down to seven place and subsequently qualifying for the Europa Conference League, which would be their joint-worst league position in the Premier League era, matching their efforts in 2013-14.

The Red Devils would drop down from sixth to seven if they fail to beat Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park and if West Ham United were to win away at Brighton & Hove Albion.

At the other end of the table, the model has predicted Burnley to avoid relegation, as they have an 84.2% chance of survival, while Leeds United only have a 15.8% chance of climbing out of the bottom three.

Leeds will travel to Brentford on the final day needing to better Burnley's result at home to Newcastle United if they wish to avoid demotion to the Championship.

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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
2Manchester CityMan City127232217523
3Chelsea126422314922
4Arsenal126422112922
5Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton126422116522
6Tottenham HotspurSpurs1261527131419
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest125431513219
8Aston Villa125431919019
9Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
10Fulham125341717018
11Brentford125252222017
12Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
13Bournemouth124351617-115
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Everton122551017-711
16Leicester CityLeicester122461523-810
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves122372028-89
18Crystal Palace121561017-78
19Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
20Southampton11119721-144


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