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Manchester City 'have 80.5% chance of retaining Premier League title'

Man City 'have 80.5% chance of retaining Premier League title'
© Reuters
Premier League leaders Manchester City have an 80.5% chance of finishing above Liverpool and retaining the title, according to stats generated by Opta.

Premier League leaders Manchester City have an 80.5% chance of retaining the title, according to stats generated by Opta.

The Citizens currently sit one point ahead of Liverpool in second place heading into the final day of the season, and victory at home against Aston Villa on Sunday will see them crowned champions regardless of whether Liverpool beat Wolverhampton Wanderers at Anfield.

Opta have created a model which displays what chance all 20 Premier League teams have in finishing in a specific position in the table.

This model suggests that Pep Guardiola's side have an 80.5% chance of finishing the season at the summit and winning the title, while Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool only have a 19.5% chance of leapfrogging the Citizens to the top of the table.

As for the top-four race, Tottenham Hotspur are the strong favourites to qualify for the Champions League according to Opta's model, as Antonio Conte's men have an 84.3% chance of consolidating fourth place, while Arsenal only have a 15.7% chance of moving above their North London rivals.

Spurs have a favourable fixture away at basement club Norwich City on Sunday, while Arsenal will play host to Everton, who confirmed their Premier League survival on Thursday.

Manchester United, meanwhile, have a 21.5% chance of slipping down to seven place and subsequently qualifying for the Europa Conference League, which would be their joint-worst league position in the Premier League era, matching their efforts in 2013-14.

The Red Devils would drop down from sixth to seven if they fail to beat Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park and if West Ham United were to win away at Brighton & Hove Albion.

At the other end of the table, the model has predicted Burnley to avoid relegation, as they have an 84.2% chance of survival, while Leeds United only have a 15.8% chance of climbing out of the bottom three.

Leeds will travel to Brentford on the final day needing to better Burnley's result at home to Newcastle United if they wish to avoid demotion to the Championship.

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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool108111961325
2Manchester CityMan City1072121111023
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest10541147719
4Chelsea105322012818
5Arsenal105321711618
6Aston Villa105321715218
7Tottenham HotspurSpurs1051422111116
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton104421714316
9Fulham104331413115
10Bournemouth104331312115
11Newcastle UnitedNewcastle104331010015
12Brentford104151920-113
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd10334912-312
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham103251319-611
15Leicester CityLeicester102441418-410
16Everton102351017-79
17Crystal Palace10145813-57
18Ipswich TownIpswich100551021-115
19Southampton10118719-124
20Wolverhampton WanderersWolves100371427-133


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