Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valenciennes win with a probability of 51.51%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Chateauroux had a probability of 21.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valenciennes win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.74%) and 1-2 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Chateauroux win it was 1-0 (8.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.