Ligue 1 | Gameweek 31
Apr 14, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stadium Municipal
Toulouse1 - 2Lyon
We said: Toulouse 1-2 Lyon
This is often a high-scoring fixture, with 25 goals being scored across the previous six meetings between the sides, and both teams have regular goalscorers in their ranks. Lyon have been very strong away from home though, losing just one of their eight on the road in Ligue 1 this calendar year, making them the slight favourites. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 42.53%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 33.69% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.51%) and 0-2 (6.18%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 2-1 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Lyon in this match.
| Result | ||
| Toulouse | Draw | Lyon |
33.69% ( 0.3) | 23.78% ( 0.1) | 42.53% ( -0.4) |
| Both teams to score 61.62% ( -0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.6% ( -0.38) | 40.4% ( 0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.23% ( -0.39) | 62.78% ( 0.39) |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.35% ( -0.01) | 23.66% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.25% ( -0.01) | 57.76% ( 0.02) |
| Lyon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.71% ( -0.33) | 19.29% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.96% ( -0.54) | 51.04% ( 0.55) |
| Score Analysis |
Toulouse 33.7%
Lyon 42.53%
Draw 23.77%
| Toulouse | Draw | Lyon |
| 2-1 @ 7.8% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 6.58% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 3.75% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.09% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.28% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.35% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0)Other @ 2.99% Total : 33.7% | 1-1 @ 10.82% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.42% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 4.56% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.77% | 1-2 @ 8.91% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.89% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 3.52% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 3.39% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 2.01% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.39% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.29% Total : 42.53% |
How you voted: Toulouse vs Lyon
Toulouse
6.9%Draw
18.1%Lyon
75.0%72
Head to Head
Oct 7, 2022 8pm
Jan 26, 2020 2pm
