There was no shortage of shots for Lille against Angers last weekend - Les Dogues simply came up against a goalkeeper in inspired form - and a similar volume of chances created with a little more ruthlessness should spell success for the hosts this weekend.
While it is too early to tell what sort of effect defeat to Toulouse may have on Der Zakarian's Montpellier, we cannot see any way for La Paillade to end Lille's phenomenal unbeaten streak at home, even if a clean sheet is not on the cards for Fonseca's team.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 68.18%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 13.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.26%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.81%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 0-1 (3.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Lille in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lille.
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