Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 46.72%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 29.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.39%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 1-2 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.